A World of Connections: The coming age of ubiquitous networking Kenneth Neil Cukier GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

The Internet Today

The Internet of Tomorrow

* Computing and networking: PC & Web via wire 1. few | 2. humans | 3. discrete sessions | 4. media content and comms * Changing to devices & sensors via wireless 1.ever-present | 2. objects | 3. all the time | 4. data about the world Introduction

We are laying the foundation… For a new infrastructure… We do not know how it will be used… But it will surprise us! Overview

Outline - Trends: computing, IT, processors, wireless - Taxonomy of technologies - Current and future uses: * cars * factories * bodies - Public Policy & Regulation - Conclusion

Trends in Computing

Trends in I.T. * 850 million PCs * +1 billion Internet users * 2.8 billion mobile phone subscribers (1.6 million new mobile subscribers per day) * 10 billion microprocessors in 2007

Trends in Processors: Moore’s Law

Trends in Wireless Efficiency

Trends in Wireless Cost

Trends in Power Consumption

Trends in Data vs. Voice Traffic

Machines vs. Humans - Transactions by computers exceed people - 12% of DNS traffic from computers alone - M2M to surpass people circa Cell phones communicate with base-stations 800 times per second (power management) billion DNS queries per day in 2010 (peak load of 4 trillion)

“Things that think want to link.” -- Nicholas Negroponte, MIT, 1995 The Marriage of Chips and Communications

Taxonomy of Wireless Technologies

Examples * GPS & Bluetooth chip: $1; size of match-head * Zigbee chip: $4, size of pinky-nail (1/4 cost & size in 4 yrs * RFID tag: ¥5 * RFID prototype: 0.05mm (groove in fingerprint) * RFID 2006 sales: 1 million (2007: 1.7 million)

Uses * Machine-to-machine: mousetraps; vending * Sensors: buildings; environment; military * New infrastructure: lighting; paint; dust * Human bodies: monitoring; activation * Cellphones: the gateway & controller

Market Size by Volume

Market Breakdown by Application

Future Uses: Cars * Accident notification * Predictive maintenance * Toll charges * New uses: insurance rates; sub-prime loans; theft-prevention; traffic monitoring

Chips in Cars

Future Uses: Factories * Lighting controls / Security alarms * Remote control / Operations monitoring * Predictive Maintenance * New uses: how processes learn

Chips in Factories

Future Uses: Bodies * Vital signs * Heart fluid-pressure monitoring * Alcohol and drug intake * Blood-sugar levels & insulin dosage * New Uses: post-operative treatment

Chips in Bodies

Obstacles * Who would do it? * Who will pay for it? * Do we need it? * Will it actually work??!!

Public Policy * Privacy * Data-security * Intellectual property * Information overload * Radio-waves and health * Spectrum availability and allocation ___________________________________ * Interconnection of separate systems * Computer memory & “forgetting”

Regulation * Who, what, where, when, how? * Bilateral vs. multilateral relationships * Public- vs. private-sector governance * The risk of regulating too soon

Comparison of Cellphone & M2M units

“People often overestimate what will happen in the next two years and underestimate what will happen in ten.” -- Bill Gates, “The Road Ahead,” 1995 Conclusion

Thank you GLOCOM - October 22, 2007

Sources Indicated by slide number: 1, 4-6, 8, 14, 15, 17, 18, 21, 23, 25, 27-29, 31, 32, N/A 2, 3, 9, 10, 11, 16, The Economist, 2007 (references for data sources on published articles; contact speaker for more info) 7. ITU, Texas Instruments (Gene Frantz, 2007). 13. ITU, 2005 (data from US FCC) 20, Gartner, Automotive Engineering International 24. BP, CommsDesign.com, VeriChip, Medtronic 30. Jupiter Research, 2006