Visioning 2030 for Region 6 George A. Erickcek W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research July 24, 2014

Agenda Progress report on the preparation of the Regional Prosperity Plan – Listening Tour Agricultural and commuting profile Economic and demographic baseline Opportunity to play “what if” scenarios for the region Estimate the economic linkages between the two sub-regions of the Thumb and I-69 corridor 1

Where are the next generation of farmers coming from? 2 Average age of farm operators Genesee Huron Lapeer St. Clair Sanilac Shiawassee Tuscola

To support the region’s farming community, nonfarm opportunities are a must Principal Occupation of the Farm Manager Farming Other% Non-farm Genesee % Lapeer % Huron % St. Clair % Sanilac % Shiawassee % Tuscola %

Agricultural production 4 Agricultural Production in Dollars (OOOs) ProductGeneseeHuronLapeerSt. ClairSanilacShiawasseeTuscola Grains, oilseeds, dry beans, and dry peas 52,714229,75466,73385,376220,428107,142183,435 Milk from cows5,305162,5869,0034,64696,72324,73123,503 Other crops and hay5,762103,03014,5955,56952,3545,52433,794 Misc.27,559159,19423,02412,34651,4617,77333,714

Commuting patterns in Region 6 6 CountyTotal Work in the Thumb Work in the I-69 Corridor Work outside Region 6 NumberPercentNumberPercentNumberPercent Genesee138,210 2, , , Huron14,464 9, , Lapeer31,035 1, , , St. Clair67,630 2, , , Sanilac13,018 6, , , Tuscola18,416 7, , , Shiawassee27, , , Employed Workforce by County of Residency

REMI Forecasting Model Regional Economic Modeling Inc. A Forecasting and Simulation Model – A well-regarded model – Provides a baseline forecast for the region – Provides the ability to generate alternative forecasts – Extremely flexible with thousands of policy and business variables that can be changed 14

Forecast for Region 6 Thumb Area – Huron – Sanilac – Tuscola I-69 International Corridor – Shiawassee – Genesee – Lapeer – St. Clair 15

The region’s changing population profile 16 Total: 878,434

The region’s changing population profile : 889, : 878, % annual increase

The region’s changing population profile : 937, : 889, : 878,434 A 0.5% annual increase from 2020 to 2030

Population trends 19

Dependency populations: Fewer kids and more seniors 20

Population trends: Working-age adults 21

Employment forecast 22

Detailed employment forecast 23 Employment Forecast 2013 to Avg. ann. chg. Utilities 2,018 1, % Construction 15,529 25,4723.0% Manufacturing 36,198 33, % Wholesale trade 12,435 13,6640.6% Retail trade 46,851 51,3480.5% Transportation and warehousing 9,053 9,4020.2% Information 7,083 6, % Finance and insurance 15,731 15, % Real estate and rental and leasing 10,522 12,2690.9% Professional, scientific, and technical services 13,353 17,4391.6% Administrative and waste management services 23,738 29,9131.4% Educational services 7,110 8,5631.1% Health care and social assistance 49,081 64,1511.6% Arts, entertainment, and recreation 6,873 7,7110.7% Accommodation and food services 26,121 30,2510.9% Other services, except public administration 21,229 22,6450.4% Farm 9,602 6, % Government 45,102 44,9360.0% Total 361, ,2890.7%

The region’s economic base is becoming more diverse 24

Economic linkages between the Thumb and I-69 Corridor IndustryThumb RegionI-69 Corridor Region Farming Fabricated metals production Fabricated metals production Food production Food production Note: Impact of 1,000 new jobs on the neighboring sub-region. Source: Regional Economic Modeling, Inc.

Visioning 2030 for Region 6 George A. Erickcek W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research July 24, 2014