Climate change Challenges and Opportunities Ian Lowe April 28, 2009

IPCC report, 18 Nov Evidence of warming “unequivocal” Effects could be “abrupt or irreversible” All countries will be affected Poor nations, low-lying areas Emission cuts “moderate cost” Window of opportunity closing fast

“global average surface temperature now about 0.8 o above its level in 1750… significant increases in the incidence of floods, droughts, heat waves and wildfires… it appears the intensity of tropical storms has been increasing as well”

Earth is overheating

Shopping centre car park: Newcastle

Local adaptations Temperature regime Rainfall patterns Sea level Extreme events Vector-borne disease Cropping Balance of natural systems

Some economic impacts Reduced agricultural production Water supply, e.g. Perth desalination Extreme events, e.g Sydney hailstorm, > $2000 million, 2003 Canberra bushfires ~ $400 million Cyclone Larry, ~ $1000 million in direct costs + effect on tourism… Defending coastal assets

Impacts on human health Direct impacts, e.g. heat stress Effects of vector-borne disease Severe events: storms, floods Indirect effects: food supply, balance of ecological systems WHO report, local studies

“There is now compelling evidence that both the extent and the impacts of climate change are likely to be at the higher end of the range projected by the IPCC” –Australian Climate Group 2008

Copenhagen March 2009 Upper range of sea level rise > 1 m West Antarctic ice sheet unstable ? 2 0 rise, % Amazon dieback, % dieback, effectively irreversible 2 0 rise, forest CO 2 absorption ½ So 2 0 unsafe, 3 0 impacts “unthinkable”

How close is 2 0 ? Current CO ppm With other GHG, ~ 460 ppm CO 2 equiv 510 ppm, 67 % chance warming > 2 0

IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri “Every country in the world has to be committed to a shared vision and a set of common goals and actions … help us move toward a much lower level of emissions”

Bali 2007: the way forward Political leadership “contract and converge” only approach ? IPCC 11/07: global cuts by 2015 Annex I 20 – 45 % by 2020 Then 80 to 95 % by 2050

EnergyTransportFugitive, waste and industrial processes) AgricultureLand clearing Kyoto target % reductions Business As Usual Source: Adapted from the Australian Greenhouse Gas Inventory and ABARE projections Australia’s Emissions (Mt) Where we are now heading What we need to achieve

Sustainable energy future Turn energy more efficiently into services [transport, cooling, lighting, motive power etc] Move away from: –supply technologies based on limited resources – technologies imposing unacceptable environmental costs

Every country Should recognise as global issue Should develop its own approach –Local needs –Local resources –Cultural traditions –Social structures –Economic opportunities

Crisis = danger + opportunity

Some economic opportunities Clean energy supply systems Demand management technologies Efficient appliances Information technologies Improved communications Resource - efficient approaches Water supply and use Efficient food production

“We need a new ethic by which every human being realises the importance of the challenge and starts to take action through changes in lifestyle and attitude” - Pachauri

Conclusion We can make a difference A global effort needed to prevent dangerous climate change “the over-arching issue” Our moral responsibility to other species and to future generations

What we do today determines the world we live in tomorrow

Xie xie Thank you for listening Any questions?