WP3 – Alternative Scenarios of Growth Trends in Demography, Economy and Trade D. Tsamboulas External Consultant

Socio-economic framework Based on existing studies and data available concerned the economic and social characteristics of each country,the socio-economic framework of today was outlined. TINA Final report SCENARIOS Final report STAC-TEN Final report REBIS Final report TIRS Final report CODE-TEN Deliverables 4 & 8 WORLDBANK DATABASE UNECE WEBSITE

Table 1 Population, GDP, Exports-Imports (in 2003)

Basic assumptions for Socio-economic scenarios 2000 as the base year data from , 2001, 2002 and 2003 were employed to establish the trends where projections were available they were used approach to trend analysis in forecasting involves the use of growth curves

Country groups for forecasting n

Demography Demography is very much influenced by natural birth and lately by external migration. Contribution of migration to demographic growth in Group 1 is close to 75%. In Group 2, for some years, since 1993, there has been a demographic decrease. The demographic evolutions between countries and within countries show indeed high contrasts inside Group 1 countries and among the rest. trend analysis in demography forecasting involved the use of growth curves

Table 2 Population projections for Group 1 countries

Table 3 Population projections for Group 2 countries

Table 4 Population projections for Group 3 countries n

Economy For Group 1, forecasts do exist for the year For the rest, extrapolations to the future years (up to 2020) are made: Assuming that growth rates in the countries of Group 2 and 3, will gradually converge with average growth rates in countries of Group 1. However, it is assumed that they are always higher than the growth rates in Group 1.

Table 5 GDP projections for the Group 1 countries

Table 6 GDP projections for the Group 2 countries

Table 7 GDP projections for the Group 3 countries n

Foreign trade For Group 1: a falling share of primary goods and bulk products, a decreasing share of intermediate goods, a rapidly increasing share of the high value goods. For Group 2 similar rates of increase for imports and exports as with countries of Group 1. more detailed geographic analysis will be necessary to investigate the potential growth of trade between neighboring countries in the Baltic areas, the Central Europe area, the Black sea area and the Balkans. The general trend in countries of Group 3 will follow the trend of Group 2.

Table 8 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 1 countries Table 9 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 1 countries

Table 10 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 2 countries

Table 11 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 2 countries

Table 12 Exports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 3 countries n

Table 13 Imports of Goods and Services (index: 2000=100) projections for Group 3 countries n