IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report De urgentie van klimaatverandering Leo Meyer Miliieudefensie Symposium Utrecht 31 oktober 2015

.” Neerslag in winters tov (NOAA 2011)

“There is evidence that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict “ (PNAS March 2015) “Fertile Crescent”

Bron: Polar science center 2015 Arctisch zee-ijsvolume verdwijnt met ca 15 % per 10 jaar

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Uit de IPCC-rapporten van 2013/2014

Key messages IPCC ➜ Human influence on the climate system is clear ➜ The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts ➜ We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future AR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM, AR5 WGIII SPM

Global mean temperature change Figure SPM.1 “Each of the past 3 decades has been the warmest since 1850”

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Recente update. Bron: Jos Hagelaars

Meer dan 90 % van de warmte verdwijnt in oceanen most of the heat ➜ More than 90% of the energy accumulating in the climate system between 1971 and 2010 has accumulated in the ocean ➜ Land temperatures remain at historic highs while ocean temperatures continue to climb AR5 SYR

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report AR5 SYR SPM CO 2 is the main driver of global warming

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report GHG emissions growth between 2000 and 2010 has been larger than in the previous three decades GHG Emissions [GtCO 2 eq/yr] AR5 WGIII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Antropogenic forcings are extremely likely the cause of warming

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Projected climate changes Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and changes in the climate system Global glacier volume will further decrease Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink and thin as global mean surface temperature rises Oceans will continue to warm during the 21st century AR5 WGI SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Potential Impacts of Climate Change Food and water shortages Increased poverty Increased displacement of people Coastal flooding AR5 WGII SPM

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Climate Change Poses Risk for Food Production Percentage of yield projections AR5 SYR SPM

Without additional mitigation, global mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 3.7 to C over the 21 st century… 18 Based on WGII AR5 Figure 19.4

Jim Hansen and co-authors, July 2015: Ice melt, sea level rise and super storms: evidence from paleo- climate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 ◦ C global warming is highly dangerous

Kleine kansen met grote gevolgen = groot risico Bron: Jevreva et al (2014), Upper limit Sea level Rise by2100, Environ.Res. Lett,

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚C Global GHG emissions reduction of % in 2050 compared to 2010 Net zero or negative GHG emissions in 2100 Global emissions to peak and start declining within next 5-15 years AR5 WGIII SPM Ambitious mitigation is affordable

IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report The window for action is rapidly closing 65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used Amount Used : 1900 GtCO2 Amount Remaining: 1000 GtCO2 Total Carbon Budget: 2900 GtCO2 AR5 WGI SPM

Bron: Climate Action Tracker okt 2015 INDCs (pledges) voor Parijs landen incl. alle grote spelers hebben hun plannen voor 2030 ingediend -Samen 90 % van de broeikasgas emissies -=> meer dan verwacht -=> maar we zijn er nog (lang) niet! -Bron: Volkskrant van 31 oktober 2015

G7 top juni 2015 Duitsland

DANK VOOR UW AANDACHT! ClimateContact-Consultancy