User Requirements/Applications World Climate Research Programme Antonio J. Busalacchi ESSIC, University of Maryland Chair, JSC WCRP

How well is the sustained global ocean observing system providing the data that is needed for climate research? What else is needed? What is not needed? Any other feedback from the perspective of the other international research programs as users of the observing system?

WCRP use/need of sustained global ocean observations Fundamental/basic research Process studies Parameterizations (e.g. CPTs) Monitoring (including assessment and attribution) (Re)Analysis Initialization of prediction

Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Studies physical mechanisms of climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal and longer time scales, and the role of the oceans in them. CLIVAR ocean basin panels develop pilot research- based observing systems focusing on the role of oceans in regional climate change and on important processes that affect the larger climate system. The CLIVAR basin panels have been a key partner for the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate (OOPC), a joint panel of the WCRP, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) in developing recommendations for the global module of the GOOS

WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP) Coordinates with the WCRP/GCOS co-sponsored panels AOPC (Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate) and OOPC (Ocean Observation Panel for Climate) and the GCOS Terrestrial Observation Panel for Climate (TOPC) to establish high quality and long-lived observations of the climate. WCRP projects and contributors have led atmospheric re-analysis for 20 years and are now closely involved in the development of ocean re- analysis and in future consideration of whole Earth system re-analysis

Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Under CLIVAR, WGSIP oversees development of improved models, assimilation systems and observing system requirements for seasonal prediction. Ocean observing systems are a critical component for initializing S-I climate forecasts.

Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Systematically addresses physical science questions related to sea-ice, glaciers, permafrost, snow and other components of the frozen water realm. These questions are integral to predicting future sea-level rise, water resources, changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation due to fresh water anomalies and the changes in the carbon cycle of the ocean

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Studies the hydrological cycle of the atmosphere. In cooperation with the WCRP Working Group on Surface Fluxes, it produces a new generation of land- and sea-surface flux data based on satellite observations, field studies and modeling. Better understanding and representation of ocean-atmosphere fluxes in coupled models is the key for longer-term climate prediction.

Working Group on Surface Fluxes (WGSF) Was established to review the requirements of the different WCRP programmes for surface sea fluxes including biogeochemical fluxes, develop communication and co- ordination between various related research initiatives, encourage research and facilitate operational activities on surface fluxes.

Surface Ocean–Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) A joint project of WCRP with the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, and the Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution. It is an innovative study aiming at quantitative understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and atmosphere. SOLAS, as well as CLIVAR and CliC, contributes to the studies of the ocean carbon cycle, cooperating with the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP).

Working Group on Coupled Modelling Review and foster the development of coupled climate models, including organisation of model intercomparisons and utilisation of available instrumental records and paleo- climatic data for model validation and diagnosis of shortcomings; Promote co-ordinated experimentation with coupled models aiming to understand natural climate variability on decadal to centennial time scales and its predictability, and to predict the response of the climate system to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcing; Promote the development of appropriate data assimilation procedures for coupled models and consider questions related to initialisation; Undertake other modelling activities in support of CLIVAR and the WCRP Liaise as appropriate with IPCC and the Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM) element of IGBP

Monsoon Research and Seasonal Prediction One third of the world’s population lives under the direct influence of monsoons, which occur due to the seasonal coupling of the atmosphere and ocean. Monsoon anomalies can mean deadly floods or insufficient rain for sustaining crops. WCRP monsoon initiatives are under way on all continents. Examples are the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel, the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA), and several South and North American projects.

Model Appraisal and Development The Working Group on Ocean Model Development addresses the specific needs and concerns of the ocean component of climate change projections. More than 40 intercomparison projects have been undertaken by WCRP since its inception to develop weather prediction, ocean and climate models from their infancy

Global Observations WCRP assists the GCOS in formulating requirements for climate observations. It cosponsors panels reviewing ocean (OOPC) and atmospheric observations for climate. By developing prototypes of observing techniques, data assimilation methods and deploying pilot observing systems, WCRP projects were instrumental in setting the stage for such successful activities as GOOS, Argo, and Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).

International Polar Year (IPY) Input from the WCRP helped to shape the science programme of IPY, and climate research dominates its agenda. WCRP was instrumental in setting up the unprecedented two-year snapshot of the polar oceans. For the first time, many satellites will allow coordinated observations of the poles at multiple wavelengths, improving our understanding of the physics of the polar oceans.

Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) Formed by WCRP, IGBP, Diversitas and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), studies the complex Earth system. Oceanographic projects of the IGBP include Land- Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ, cosponsored by IHDP), SOLAS, and Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER). The two latter projects are also cosponsored by the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR). The joint ESSP Global Carbon Project (GCP), in its work on the global carbon cycle, cooperates with the IOCCP

Climate Impacts Dependent on Ocean Observations

Sea-level Rise In June 2006, the WCRP organized a major international workshop, hosted by the IOC at UNESCO, on sea-level rise and variability. It achieved consensus on the estimates of the current pace of sea-level rise and the requirements for observing systems and modeling to better constrain the estimates and predictions. More research is needed to better understand the heat uptake and resulting expansion of the oceans, the stability of ice sheets, the amount of water stored on land, and to improve altimetric measurements of the ocean.

Role of the ocean in seasonal and decadal forecasting and prediction of droughts and floods Long-term weather anomalies, heat waves and precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by the ocean. WCRP-led research on seasonal and decadal forecasting has already demonstrated its value for assessing water abundances and shortages, and hence the danger of droughts and floods, of outbreaks of tropical diseases, of forest fires and of many other hazards. Developing countries are most vulnerable to these seasonal climatic anomalies, and therefore stand to gain the most from improved predictions. For that reason, it is crucial to take full advantage of the potential predictability associated with the ocean in a range of seasonal and decadal prediction applications.

Abrupt climate change In many past climate records, there are clear signs of abrupt changes in the regional or global climate, warming or cooling of more than 5°C in only a few decades. Some evidence suggests that these events may have been caused by large changes in the oceanic circulation. There may be thresholds or ‘tipping points’ in the oceanic circulation, so that changes to the climate may not be reversible. While the IPCC expects that the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation will slow and not change abruptly in the coming century, uncertainties remain, and the effects could be potentially catastrophic. Further investment in research on non-linear climate feedbacks and improvement of global ocean, coupled climate and Earth System models is necessary.

Tropical cyclones, storms, surges and other climate-related hazards Floods and tropical cyclones are some of the deadliest and costliest natural hazards. The Bhola cyclone in 1970 killed 500,000 people in Bangladesh, and cyclone Katrina flooded the city of New Orleans in Tropical storms draw their energy from the heat of the ocean surface, so that ocean models and sea-surface flux data are required for predicting both the strength and path of an individual storm, and also the long-term changes in storm number, intensity and location.

How well is the sustained global ocean observing system providing the data that is needed for climate research? Truly great strides have been made in the past years: e.g., TAO, Argo, satellite altimetry

What else is needed? Greater synergy between in situ and space-based ocean observations Greater dialogue (i.e., requirements) between climate prediction and ocean observing components Systems approach to obs/fields A routine ocean state estimation activity inclusive of observational error estimates Sustained data/information delivery; plan for access and archival of ocean research observations Infrastructure to ensure climate quality, continuity, and reprocessing capabilities

What is not needed? Organizational boundaries that serve as impediments to greater synthesis, synergy, and requirements definition for ocean observations

Any other feedback from the perspective of the other international research programs as users of the observing system? Systems outside the WCRP’s scope that benefit from improved climate predictions: –Fisheries and Marine Resources –Coastal Area Management –Ocean ecosystems change