BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Palaeo- distribution modelling: Using the pollen record to validate climate change impact assessments Peter Brewer

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 “ …we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. ” Thomas et al. (2004) Nature. 427,

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – present day

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – 2050s

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Inga edulis – 2090s

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Future modelling Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Preference or Niche Future Climate Future Prediction Model Building Model Projection

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Future modelling assumption The climate layers used in the modelling process are the only influential variables that change through time

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 How can we test? We require independent locality data for a different time period

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 How can we test? We require independent locality data for a different time period Pollen record provides palaeo- locality data over a wide area and time frame.

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Pollen data sites

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Problems with using pollen Standard palynological problems include… Differential preservation Long distance dispersal Contamination Taxonomic resolution Only a few taxa are identifiable to a specific level

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Study species TaxonPollenRecsGBIFRecsDistinct? Fagus sylvatica Yes Pteridium aquilinum Yes Menyanthes trifoliata Yes Corylus avellana Yes Plantago lanceolata Yes Lycopodium clavatum Yes Calluna vulgaris Yes Typha latifolia Yes

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Present Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Niche Palaeo Climate Palaeo Prediction Pollen Locality Data Palaeo Climate Climatic Niche Palaeo Prediction = Results Model Projection Model Building Derived from present data Derived from palaeo data

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Present Climate Present Prediction Palaeo Locality Data Palaeo Climate Climatic Niche Present Prediction Present Locality Data Present Climate Climatic Niche = Results Model Projection Model Building Derived from present data Derived from palaeo data

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Model runs = = ≠≠

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 The role of BDWorld Tools require different data formats Manual editing of data introduces mistakes Repeating experiment with different taxon and/or time period is laborious BDWorld provides an integrated environment where all data sources and tools can be compiled into one workflow

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 What data and tools are needed? Present locality data Palaeo-locality data Present and palaeo climate data Modelling algorithms Statistical analysis

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 What data and tools are needed? Present locality data= GBIF Palaeo-locality data= Pollen DB’s Present and palaeo climate data= Bristol Modelling algorithms= openModeller Statistical analysis= Custom

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Workflow

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 ToolTriana/BDWorldComplete StringGenTrianaYes BufferTrianaYes DuplicatorTrianaYes ImageViewTrianaYes StringEditorTrianaYes StringViewerTrianaYes BDWCacheDatabaseBDWorldYes ComboBoxBuilderBDWorldYes GBIFDatabaseBDWorldYes GetLayersBDWorldYes GetLayersetBDWorldYes GetoMAlgorithmsBDWorldYes GetSpeciesListBDWorldYes GetTaxonBDWorldYes ImageConverterBDWorldYes PollenLocalitiesBDWorldYes RunOpenModellerBDWorldYes RunProjOpenModellerBDWorldYes SpeciesListToMapBDWorldYes StatsCompBDWorldNo

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Work still to complete Finalise choice of statistical analysis Fix “big datasets” problem Run analyses!

BiodiversityWorld GRID Workshop NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005 Acknowledgements BBSRC BiodiversityWorld Team Michael Keith-Lucas