System-Wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products University of Arizona Holly Hartmann Ellen Lay Damian Hammond NWS Climate Prediction Center Ed O’Lenic Lloyd Thomas Melissa Ou Kenneth Pelman

Unique among stakeholders Relevant forecast variables, regions (location & scale), seasons, lead times, performance characteristics Technical sophistication: base probabilities, distributions, statistics Role of of climate information and projections in decision making Common across many, but not all, stakeholders Have difficulty distinguishing between “good” & “bad” products Have difficulty placing information in context – “connecting the dots” User Issues with Climate Information Common across all groups: climate vs. weather Uninformed, mistaken about forecast interpretation Understand implications of uncertainty vs. false certainty Use of forecasts limited by lack of demonstrated forecast skill

Concerns for Climate Science Enterprise Transferability Scalability Changed decisions and decision processes Public support for climate research Enabling system-wide change Sustainability Perspectives on Climate Services Principles for Public Sector Approach Equity vs. Impact vs. Return on Investment Responsiveness to evolving needs Focus on Process as well as Products

Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products Easy Access: Information management portfolio Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation Issue: ApproachGoal: Products & Process! YR1 YR3 YR2

Issues for Stakeholders - too much information - can’t discern ‘good’ from ‘bad’ information Facilitating Information Intermediaries & Users

Information Management: Collections of products from different sources stored in customer-based portfolios. Save a history of work on each product, so you can return to your work any time, easily repeat past analyses using updated data. Report/Newsletter Generation create PDF reports of your product collections and analysis results for non-Internet users automatically includes provider-mandated legends, data sourcing, logos, contact information, caveats, explanations sections for intermediary’s value-added comments 1. CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & Decision Support System

Provider Image Provider Image Provider Text Your Text First application: CLIMAS Border Climate Summary - March CLIDDSS: Climate Information Delivery & DSS

Synergistic growth in utility as more & more products link to portfolios & report. We are actively seeking additional providers! What Providers Get - Control over ancillary content of products - Maintain their ‘brand’ and image - Track contextual use of products What Intermediaries Get - Can focus on adding value rather than accessing data - Efficiency allows serving many more clients while hitting their individual needs - Can maintain their ‘brand’ and image - Interdisciplinary networking through group involvement in portfolio and report development - Proprietary information can be included, securely What Users Get - Beginners benefit from experience of others, through access to pre- developed portfolios - Capacity-building through group/team- managed portfolios and reports - Customized translation by specialists of generic products - Expert screening of ‘good’ information 1. CLIDDSS: Information Management and Newsletter Generation

1. How CLIDDSS Works User’s computer has: Browser pointed to FET and JDO Persistence Layer Database Database stores: product states (not raw products) All data except locally stored images/text CLIDDSS Application CLIDDSS Server CLIDDSS SOAP Service Product Submission SOAP Services Apache Tomcat FET Server Product Retrieval SOAP Service(s) Product states, raw images/text Provider Admin Report Creation Product Management Product Component Retrieval Requests: (submits a product’s state) Product Submission Request Submitting Product State to CLIDDSS Product Components Return code User Customized Report Template Report can include: Products Images Text Hard drive stores: PDF Report(s) Locally saved images/text Persistence Layer allows CLIDDSS to be easily moved from one database to another

l Identify product l Identify product components -Supporting text -Agency logo -Selection criteria l Create a SOAP service for product l Submit SOAP service WSDL file to CLIDDSS developers l Modify product HTML page to allow users to request product submission l Create a product submission service for CLIDDSS based on submitted WSDL file l Send back product submission WSDL file and service location Product provider’s work CLIDDSS Developer’s work 1. Steps to Become a Product Provider

Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products Easy Access: Information management portfolio Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation Issue: Approach YR1 YR3 YR2

NWS Local 3-month Temperature Outlook climate/l3mto.php User-selected product formats 2. Many product formats for diverse users

2. User customization of products – building CPC capabilities

Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products Easy Access: Information management portfolio Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation Issue: Approach YR1 YR3 YR2

Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts Now L3MTO station forecasts, Alaska Six elements in our webtool: Forecast Interpretation – Tutorials Exploring Forecast Progression Historical Context Forecast Performance Use in Decision Making Details: Forecast Techniques, Research NWS Climate Services Division: Climate Focal Points at every WFO 3.

Forecast Evaluation Tool: Linking Past, Present, Future /ForecastEvaluationTool/

wet dry 3. Forecast Evaluation Tool: Verification User-controlled evaluations Move from simple to complex verification Skill, data used to compute scores, paired forecast and observation map

Institute community software development framework: public, academic, private Version Control System Problem/Task Tracking System “Rules of the Road” 3. FET to CPC: not just a software transfer!

Our Project: Activities on Multiple Fronts Misinterpretation: Field-testing of communication effectiveness for all products as SOP Connecting Information: Consistent linking of forecasts, recent observations, historical record Forecast Quality: Customized forecast verification Unique Needs for Products: Dynamic, customizable products Easy Access: Information management portfolio Connecting Information: Newsletter/report generation Issue: Approach YR1 YR3 YR2

Dynamic webtools conflict with federal, academic policies & practices Prohibitions on user profiles, registration, dynamic process initiation Requirements for complex and time-consuming webpage approval Copyright restrictions preclude efficient knowledge transfer and use Federal agencies and academia should adapt, too Serve broad user needs for knowledge development & information management Exploit evolving technologies Facilitate rapid deployment of user-customizable webtools Support ‘products’ over ‘prototypes’ Use Creative Commons to encourage applications by private sector & others Past Recommendations Researchers should adapt: conduct stakeholder-relevant research, develop applications, transition to operations Decision makers should adapt: use advances in climate information and forecasts, incorporate uncertainty and probabilities, use risk management approaches New Tools for Climate Services: Challenges