NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry STUDIES OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY A. DIFFERENT PROSPECTIVE STUDIES a) 2005 b) 2006 B. KNOWLEDGE SOFTWARE (PREP MODEL) C. CREATIVE STRATEGIC BUSINESS MODEL SOFTWARE (ALADIN MODEL) D. TRAINING SESSIONS a) Creativity stimulation b) Prospective approaches c) Innovation management

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Strategic studies of the fragrance industry a) (first version 126 pages) b) (second version 137 pages)

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry 2005 PROSPECTIVE STUDY First version variables 7 macro trends 3 scenarios

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Geographical zones South America Middle EastAustralia South Pacific Europe Asia North America

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Experts Creators Distributors Media Regulation Packaging Brands Fragrance Manufacturers Economics

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry 2006 PROSPECTIVE STUDY Second version variables 58 macro trends 5 scenarios

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Functional variables (128) Manufacturing (21) Economic and Finance (10) Environmental/ regulation (18) Human (9) Strategic (26) Marketing (21) R&D and Innovation (23)

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Geographical zones South America Brazil Middle East Dubai, Saudi Arabia Australia South Pacific French Polynesia, Hawaii Europe France, Germany United Kingdom, Italy, Spain Baltic countries Asia Japan, China, India North America Usa, Canada

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Experts Creators Trends: 7+5 Distributors Trends: 7+7 Media Trends: 7+5 Regulation Trends: 7+6 Packaging Trends: 7+7 Brands Trends: 7+7 Fragrance Manufacturers Trends: 7+7 Economics Trends: 7+7 General trends: 7 Specific trends: 51

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Scenarios Optimistic “Inane” Pessimistic reasonable Pessimistic “Cassandra” Reference Optimistic reasonable

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry B) PREP MODEL 51 SPECIFIC TRENDS AUTOMATIC ANALYSIS OF QUESTIONNAIRES SCENARIOS CONSEQUENCES SEVEN GENERIC TRENDS EIGHT TYPES OF EXPERTS

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry C) CREATIVE STRATEGIC BUSINESS MODEL (ALADIN MODEL) STREGHTS AND WEAKNESSES POSITIONNING VALUE PROPOSITION BUSINESS MODEL TREATS AND OPPORTUNITIES GENERATE INNOVATION MASTER COMPLEXITY KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Is the prospective study a good study? Has these study a good methodology?

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry First version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS PROPOSED 2. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS CONFIRMED

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry First version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY Examples of some results proposed (Public presentation of some short term trends at Luxe PACK Monaco November 2, 2005) A. Importance of regulation B. Consolidation in packaging C. M&A (Merger and acquisition) in distribution

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry First version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY Examples of some results confirmed (two years latter…) A. Law about allergens voted B. Consolidation in packaging glass makers: Saint Gobain Desjonquères ???, (Fond Sagard et Cognétas 29/03/07) paper: failure C. M&A (Merger and acquisition) in distribution Marionnaud/ Watson

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Second version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS PROPOSED 2. EXAMPLES OF SOME RESULTS CONFIRMED

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Second version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY Examples of some results proposed (in the report December 20, 2006, delivered to different clients) A. Different trends confirmed by experts B. Fusion and acquisition in Fragrances houses C. Specific role of some types of innovation D. New business models

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Second version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY Example of some results confirmed (six month latter) A. Different trends confirmed already Some trends integrated in the strategy B. Fusion and acquisition in Fragrances houses Givaudan/ Quest Robertet/Charabot ( ) C. Role of innovation confirmed by some companies results D. New business integrated in strategies

NVD CONSULTANTS Strategic studies of the fragrance industry Second version PROSPECTIVE STUDY OF THE FRAGRANCE INDUSTRY Flexibility of use of the study for your company A. Variables data base B. Links between variables “configurations” data base C. Experts advice data base D. Consequences data base Your questions ??? E. Possibility to personalize the recommendations