Improving Decision Making for Results The Role of Ex Ante Poverty Impact Assessment Third International Round Table MfDR Hanoi, February 2007 Wolf M. Dio, GTZ POVNET Task Team Leader Ex Ante Poverty Impact Assessment

Assess Improvements to MDGs plus Assess Enhancement to capabilities Determine transmission channels Analyse Institutions & Stakeholders Determine & Design Interventions Country Assistance StrategiesNational Strategies / Plans RESULTSCHAINRESULTSCHAIN PIA Modules Risks PIA framework and modules Information quality and gaps

PIA pilot applications: Lessons learned PIA pilot applications in: India, Vietnam, Kenya, Cambodia, Honduras, Zambia (Bangladesh, Bolivia, Mali, Senegal forthcoming) Donors involved in PIA pilot applications: France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland

PIA pilot applications: Lessons learned PIA helps to 1.understand stakeholders and institutions that influence and are influenced by an intervention 2.understand the importance and inter- relationship of specific transmission channels through which changes are transmitted to the stakeholders 3.assess the likely positive and negative outcomes for stakeholders taking into account multi-dimensionality of poverty

PIA pilot applications: Lessons learned PIA helps to 4.assess the reliability of data/information and knowledge gaps 5.provide a framework for improving baseline data and monitoring the impact hypothesis during implementation and inputs for ex post evaluations 6.formulate recommendations for decision makers on how the intervention might be improved

PIA pilot applications: Lessons learned Take care that 1.it is not used as a “box-ticking exercise” 2.decision makers and stakeholders are adequately involved in the process 3.you depart on a full-fledged analysis (PSIA), in case information gaps and/or risks are too large 4.it is not seen as a merely technical exercise, loosing sight of political dimensions

PIA pilot applications: Lessons learned Challenges ahead –Scaling up experiences –Appropriation and institutionalization by donors and partners –Capacity development of staff of operational departments of donors, partner agencies, local research institutions and consultants

Summing up – Key Messages To manage for results, appropriate approaches for ex ante assessments and analysis are as relevant as monitoring and ex post evaluationTo manage for results, appropriate approaches for ex ante assessments and analysis are as relevant as monitoring and ex post evaluation PIA provides a focussed process to look at poverty-relevant consequences of interventionsPIA provides a focussed process to look at poverty-relevant consequences of interventions PIA and PSIA are complementing approaches with specific comparative advantagesPIA and PSIA are complementing approaches with specific comparative advantages Scaling up experiences, institutionalization and capacity development are key for the futureScaling up experiences, institutionalization and capacity development are key for the future

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