C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 1
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 2 Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques –Planned Plant and Equipment Spending –Expected Sales and Inventory Changes –Consumers’ Expenditure Plans Opinion Polls –Business Executives –Sales Force –Consumer Intentions
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 3
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 4 Time-Series Analysis Secular Trend –Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data Cyclical Fluctuations –Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction Seasonal Variation –Regularly Occurring Fluctuations Irregular or Random Influences
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 5
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 6 Trend Projection Linear Trend: S t = S 0 + b t b = Growth per time period Constant Growth Rate S t = S 0 (1 + g) t g = Growth rate Estimation of Growth Rate lnS t = lnS 0 + t ln(1 + g)
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 7
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 8
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 9 Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast = Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 10
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 11 Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method: Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for = (0.394)(17) = Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 12 Moving Average Forecasts Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 13 Exponential Smoothing Forecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.
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C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 15
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 16
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 17
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 18 Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 19 Barometric Methods National Bureau of Economic Research Department of Commerce Leading Indicators Lagging Indicators Coincident Indicators Composite Index Diffusion Index
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 20
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 21
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 22
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 23 Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand for Cereal (Good X) Q X = a 0 + a 1 P X + a 2 Y + a 3 N + a 4 P S + a 5 P C + a 6 A + e Q X = Quantity of X P X = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population P S = Price of Muffins P C = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 24 Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 25
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 26 Input-Output Forecasting Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 27 Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix Direct Requirements Input Requirements Column Total =
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 28 Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 29 Input-Output Forecasting = Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 30 Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table
C opyright 2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 31 Chapter 5 Appendix
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