C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 1.

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Presentation transcript:

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 1

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 2 Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques –Planned Plant and Equipment Spending –Expected Sales and Inventory Changes –Consumers’ Expenditure Plans Opinion Polls –Business Executives –Sales Force –Consumer Intentions

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 3

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 4 Time-Series Analysis Secular Trend –Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data Cyclical Fluctuations –Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction Seasonal Variation –Regularly Occurring Fluctuations Irregular or Random Influences

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 5

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 6 Trend Projection Linear Trend: S t = S 0 + b t b = Growth per time period Constant Growth Rate S t = S 0 (1 + g) t g = Growth rate Estimation of Growth Rate lnS t = lnS 0 + t ln(1 + g)

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 7

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 8

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 9 Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast = Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 10

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 11 Seasonal Variation Ratio to Trend Method: Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for = (0.394)(17) = Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 12 Moving Average Forecasts Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 13 Exponential Smoothing Forecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 14

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 15

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 16

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 17

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 18 Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 19 Barometric Methods National Bureau of Economic Research Department of Commerce Leading Indicators Lagging Indicators Coincident Indicators Composite Index Diffusion Index

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 20

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 21

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 22

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 23 Econometric Models Single Equation Model of the Demand for Cereal (Good X) Q X = a 0 + a 1 P X + a 2 Y + a 3 N + a 4 P S + a 5 P C + a 6 A + e Q X = Quantity of X P X = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population P S = Price of Muffins P C = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 24 Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 25

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 26 Input-Output Forecasting Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 27 Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix Direct Requirements Input Requirements Column Total =

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 28 Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 29 Input-Output Forecasting = Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 30 Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 31 Chapter 5 Appendix

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 32

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 33

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 34

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 35

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 36

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 37

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 38

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 39