Health impacts of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Thailand Lauri Myllyvirta coal and air pollution specialist Greenpeace

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5)

Largest environmental health risk in the world Air pollution is responsible for 3 million premature deaths in the world each year, and 160,000 in Southeast Asia (Global Burden of Disease Study) WHO: Air pollution is officially classified as a carcinogen and labeled “a leading environmental cause of cancer deaths”

Coal share of pollution emissions in Thailand in 2008 CO2NOxPM10PM2.5SO2 24%26%69%40%70% Source: REAS v2.1

Existing coal-fired power plants (gray) and new projects (red)

Estimated PM2.5 levels attributable to currently operating coal-fired power plants

Projected PM2.5 levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants and new projects

Projected ozone levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants

Projected ozone levels from currently operating coal-fired power plants and new projects

Results: Modeled premature deaths from operating coal-fired plants *Confidence interval (95%):

Results: Projected premature deaths from coal-fired plants if all planned projects take place *Confidence interval (95%):

Case studies: Rayong, Krabi and Thepa

Rayong: BLCP and Gheco One Second-largest coal-fired power plant capacity and emissions in Thailand 120km from Bangkok In vicinity of important tourist destinations

Methodology Use same data on emissions, location and stack parameters as the Harvard study High-resolution atmospheric modeling with the CALPUFF model recommended by U.S. EPA, using chemistry results from Harvard Health impact assessment using the same data and approach as the Harvard study

Domain 150 million people The power plants are located in one of the most densely populated areas in the world

Rayong: Modeled daily maximum PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Rayong: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Estimated premature deaths from Rayong plants cases per year Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke Ischemic heart disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Lung cancer Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases Total

Krabi: Modeled maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Krabi: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Projected premature deaths from Krabi over 40 years of operation Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke Ischemic heart disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Lung cancer Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases Total

Krabi: Predicted acid rain, kg SO2 / km2 / year

Krabi: Predicted fly ash fallout, kg / km2 / year

Thepa: Modeled maximum daily PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Thepa: Modeled annual PM2.5 concentrations (μg/m3)

Projected premature deaths from Thepa project over 40 years of operation Best estimate 95% confidence interval Stroke Ischemic heart disease Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Lung cancer Other chronic cardiovascular and respiratory diseases Total

Thepa: Predicted acid rain, kg SO2 / km2 / year

Thepa: Predicted fly ash fallout, kg / km2 / year 500 0

Health impacts are exacerbated by weak emission standards

RE the mainstay of power generation investments Globally, 2014 was the first year when renewable energy use grew more than fossil fuels In U.S. and Europe, majority of new generating capacity is powered by renewable energy; coal is on the decline China’s coal use is falling and all of electricity demand growth is being covered from non-fossil sources, mainly renewable energy

Recommendations Set emission standards for existing and new coal-fired power plants that protect public health and are in line with other key developing economies Make emission monitoring mandatory and monitoring results public Assess health impacts for all new projects: the law already requires this but it is never done Re-think coal-based electricity investment plan in light of health impacts, and rapidly improving economics of renewable energy