1 What Can Wind Do for Energy Security? Hisashi Hoshi The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan Quantum Leap in Wind :Overcoming Challenges and Building Momentum in Asia Manila, June 2011

2 Energy Insecurity of Japan (Contingent Risks Experienced)  On and after March 11 Blackout Cutoffs of water and gas supply No Oil : Gasoline, Diesel, Heating Kerosene  Summer 2011 All-out effort to avoid power shortage in the midst of nuclear disaster

3 TEPCO on Alert (Source :TEPCO Homepage)

4 Energy Insecurity of Japan (Structural Risks, Additional)  Unpredictable Nuclear Power Outlook 14 Planned units by 2030 in Question Local authorities ’ resistance to restart of idle reactors.

5 Growing China and India Primary Energy Demand (Asia) (Source:IEEJ)

6 Supply and Demand of Oil in Asia Vulnerable Asia ,067 1,380 1,720 1, ,353 1, ,000 1,500 2,000 2, DemandProductionNet import Mtoe. (Source:IEEJ)

7 More Renewables!  Japan (1974) CSP (Sunshine Program)  Brazil (1981) Bioethanol  China (2006) Renewable Energy Law  Japan (2011) “ Rooftop PV on 10 mil. houses ”

8 Does Wind work for Energy Security?  Risks to address Physical Shortage 1.Concentration of supply source 2.Transportation (chokepoint) 3.Geopolitical instability 4.Energy mix portfolio Price volatility

9 Does Wind work for Energy Security?  Some drawbacks of wind power Variability Distance from Demand Centre Social Acceptance

10 Social Acceptance Beautiful Ugly

11 Conclusion  While Energy Security must be achieved through multiple measures, RE including wind power will best serve the end.  Wind Power has its drawbacks. But they are surmountable, and tolerable if benefits are considered.