Chemical forecast from NASA, U.Iowa & NCAR Arlindo DaSilva, NASA Goddard Pablo Saide, Greg Carmichael, U. Iowa Louisa Emmons, Mary Barth, Mijeong Park, NCAR

UIOWA model summary WRFv3.3.1, 12km horizontal resolution, 35 vertical levels up to 50hPa, MYJ PBL, run continuously, FNL meteo, 2 runs: – Full chemistry: Lin MP, KF cumulus, CBMZ-MOSAIC 4 bin with aerosol direct effect, no biomass burning, MACC (assimilated, ECMWF) chemical boundary conditions Output: Full chemistry (O3, CO, NOx, VOC, etc.), Aerosol mass (oc, bc, so4, nh4, no3, oin, na, cl, water) and number resolved by size – Tracer (no chemistry, no decay, no deposition), Morrison MP, Grell Cumulus Tracers: Biomass burning (NCAR + Plume rise), Thailand, China region, India region, East Thailand region (Vietnam), West Thailand region (Nepal), South Thailand region (Indonesia), shipping, degassing volcanoes, dust, sea salt, MEGAN biogenics Emissions: INTEX-B °x0.5° resolution, IIASA x1° shipping, vertical and diurnal variation for Area, Industry and Power. Plots: Pressure levels: 925, 850, 500, 200, 150, 100. Five cross sections Topography, Cross-sections and model domain

NCAR models: MOZART-4 and WRF-Tracer MOZART-4, driven by GEOS-5 meteorology (global) 1) Full Chemistry: 1.9°x2.5° horiz resolution 2) Tracers only: 0.5°x0.6° horiz resolution – Tracers with 25-day lifetime based on anthropogenic CO emissions (global and by region) and biomass burning – Soluble tracer with 25-day lifetime, global anthro CO emissions – 5-day tracer, global anthro CO emissions – Biogenic tracer, MEGAN isoprene emissions, 5-day lifetime – Lightning NO tracer, 5-day lifetime – Stratospheric ozone tracer Emissions: Anthro: Streets-ARCTAS; Fires: FINN (Wiedinmyer) WRF with Tracers: 2 Domains: 20 & 4 km hor.resol.; top: 10 hPa Physics: – Two moment cloud physics (modified Thompson et al., 2004) – Tiedtke scheme / No convective parameterization – Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL parameterization – NOAH land surface model – Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for long wave radiation – Goddard scheme for short wave radiation Tracers: – 1 tracer from the boundary layer everywhere in domain – 2 tracers from the boundary layer for the Straits of Malacca region (passive and 1-day lifetime tracers) – 2 tracers from the mid-Troposphere region – 2 tracers from the Stratosphere region – 1 tracer from the production of lightning-NOx

Other NCAR products FINN – Fire Inventory from NCAR (C. Wiedinmyer) Run in real-time using MODIS Rapid Response fire counts (FIRMS from UMd) Fire emissions for each fire, and gridded to 0.5 deg Emissions for CO 2, CO, NO, BC, OC, etc., and speciated VOCs (MOZART, SAPRC, GEOS-chem mechanisms) MOPITT CO Processed daily at NCAR, available within 8 hours of overpass Joint Thermal/Near IR retrievals of CO profiles Global coverage in 3 days IASI CO Processed daily at NCAR Thermal IR retrievals Full global coverage twice a day

India region contribution China region contribution Good opportunities over Nepal Big contributions from India and China regions Total CO full chemistry 150mb 1. Anticyclone Transport

E.Asia Anthro Good opportunities over Nepal Big contributions from India and China regions India Anthro (white line indicates source region) Lightning NO

India contribution 850 hPa Iowa WRF has some transport from India over BoB, but MZ4/GEOS5 does not Pollution over Nepal mainly from India, very mixed due to anticyclone Total CO full chemistry 850 hPa 2. Pollution over Northern Bay of Bengal, Nepal Anthro CO

Indonesia region 150mb Isolated convection over BoB and east of Singapore Cumulus outflow from India, south Thailand, and Biomass burning Vertical velocityBiomass Burning 150mb India region contribution 150mb 3. Outflow from cumulus, cloud processing

Anthro, 25-day soluble tracer Low values of soluble tracer indicate extensive cloud processing of air at 200 hPa Anthro, 25-day tracer Lightning NO

NCAR WRF-Tracer shows strongest convection over S. Gulf of Thailand 3. Outflow from cumulus, cloud processing Reflectivity (dBZ)

Dust tracer Biomass burning tracer Biogenics tracer All at 850 mb CO full chemistry (non BB) 4. Tropospheric chemistry source characterization Volcano tracer

4. Tropospheric chemistry source characterization Fire tracer Anthro Fires Biogenics Anthro tracer Isoprene emissions tracer

Cross section west to east through Singapore (103.75E) Sources other than shipping dominate pollution Low clouds present 5. Ship track study Shipping Tracer Volcano Tracer Indonesia region Tracer Biomass Burning Tracer

6. TTL Cirrus heating rates Cirrus over clear water on East BoB, east Philippines, around Java LWP IWP Cloud Incidence

Biomass Burning 150mb Extensive cirrus coverage (model cloud fraction at 150mb) High number of Aerosol Aerosol Number full chem Cloud Incidence 7. Cirrus microphysics

CO BB 150 mb CO BB 850 mb Avoid convection close to Singapore 8. Smoke radiative heating rates 13. Biomass burning BB across Singapore

8. Smoke radiative heating rates 13. Biomass burning CO Biomass Burning 150 mb CO Biomass Burning 850 mb Some burning on Borneo

Tropopause height ~ 17km over Utapao (~100mb) Big China Contribution 10. Mixing into TTL Water vapor 100mb Tracer runWater vapor 100mb FullChem run China region 100mb Strat intrusion near convected pollution?

Aerosols and clouds LWP+IWP, LWP contours TOTAL AOD with contours at 500mb 11. ACE satellite retrievals 12. Aerosol retrievals through clouds 14. CALIPSO and CloudSat retrievals AOD with cloud contours Across Utapao