Implementation Plan for Food Security Forecasting Model (F Model) Information in AFSIS Shoji KIMURA Expert of ASEAN Food Security Information System (AFSIS) Project 1

1.Purpose Desires to promote the Food Security Forecasting Model, in the field of standardization and conformity assessment on the basis of equality and mutual benefits. Recognizing that such cooperation shall promote economic partnership and support friendly relationships between member countries. 2

2. Period 2. Period

3. Activity 3-1.To create the mid-long term supply and demand forecasting information. 3-2.To broaden the necessary data for creating mid-long term supply and demand forecasting information. 4

3. Activity (2) 3.1 Creating supply and demand forecasting information 3.1.1Learning and creating [first year] Understanding and learning forecasting method TrainingHomeworkWorkshop (presentation) [Second year] Learning the forecasting model and creating supply and demand forecasting information using F Model TrainingHomeworkWorkshop (presentation) [Third year] Creating and Analyzing supply and demand forecasting information Training HomeworkWorkshop (presentation) 5

3. Activity (3) 3-1Creating supply and demand forecasting information 3-1-2Developing F Model [First year] Developing F Model Developing by Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences (JIRCAS) 6

3. Activity (4) 3-2Broadening necessary data 3-2-1“Guideline for collecting data” for F Model [First year – Second year] 3-2-2Collecting the data based on guideline [First year – Third year] 3-2-3Improving AFSIS Database [Third year] 7

4. Activity Schedule [First year ] JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Investigating meeting Workshop Training Workshop AFSISAFSIS Developing F Model (JIRCAS) Guideline for data (draft) Guideline for rice Guideline for other crops MEMBERCOUNTRIESMEMBERCOUNTRIES Homework Creating forecasting information using regression formula Forecasting report Examine guideline Data Collecting 8

4.Activity Schedule (2) JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Training Workshop AFSISAFSIS F Model review (JIRCAS) F Model parameter (JIRCAS) Guideline for meats Improving statistical method (Supporting for target countries) MEMBERCOUNTRIESMEMBERCOUNTRIES Homework Creating forecasting information using F Model Extending target commodities Forecasting report Data collecting [Second year] 9

4. Activity Schedule (3) JanFebMarAprMa y JunJulAugSepOctNovDec Training Workshop AFSISAFSIS F Model parameter review (JIRCAS) Improving Database Announcement of Forecasting Information in ASEAN Improving statistical method (Supporting for Target countries) MEMBERCOUNTRIESMEMBERCOUNTRIES Providing new data to AFSIS Creating forecasting information using model (reflecting agricultural policy) Forecasting report Date collecting [Third year] Homework 10

Comparison of Present database and New database No.Item No.Item No.Item No.Item No.Item No.Item 1Paddy harvested area44Cassava exports quantity5Soybean seed 12 8Soybean processing use 17 0Beef meat domestic supply 21 2 Chicken meat import value total 2Maize harvested area45 Sugarcane exports quantity87Paddy waste 12 9Rice other use 17 1Buffalo meat domestic supply 21 3Population 3Cassava harvested area46Soybean exports quantity88Maize waste 13 0Maize other use 17 2Pork meat domestic supply 21 4GDP, real 4Sugarcane harvested area47Paddy imports value89Cassava waste 13 1Cassava other use 17 3Chicken meat domestic supply 21 5GDP, nominal 5Soybean harvested area48Maize imports value90Sugarcane waste 13 2Sugarcane other use 17 4Beef meat food use 21 6GDP, nominal (USD) 6Paddy planted area49Cassava imports value91Soybean waste 13 3Soybean other use 17 5Buffalo meat food use 21 7GDP deflator 7Maize planted area50Sugarcane imports value92Population domain 13 4Rice beginning stocks 17 6Pork meat food use 21 8CPI 8Cassava planted area51Soybean imports value93Domestic Consumption 13 5Maize beginning stocks 17 7Chicken meat food use Sugarcane planted area52Paddy exports value94 Number and area of agricultural holdings 13 6Cassava beginning stocks 17 8Beef meat food use per capita Soybean planted area53Maize exports value95Labor Force of persons 13 7Sugarcane beginning stocks 17 9 Buffalo meat food use per capita Paddy production54Cassava exports value96Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 13 8Soybean beginning stocks 18 0Pork fmeat ood use per capita Maize production55Sugarcane exports value97Per capita Gross Value Added (GVA) 13 9Rice ending stocks 18 1 Chicken meat fooduse per capita Cassava production56Soybean exports value98Rice producer price 14 0Maize ending stocks 18 2Beef meat other use Sugarcane production57Paddy imports99Maize producer price 14 1Cassava ending stocks 18 3Buffalo meat other use Soybean production58Maize imports 10 0Cassava producer price 14 2Sugarcane ending stocks 18 4Pork meat other use Paddy yield59Cassava imports 10 1Sugarcane producer price 14 3Soybean ending stocks 18 5Chicken meat other use Maize yield60Sugarcane imports 10 2Soybean producer price 14 4Pig producer price 18 6Beef stock change Cassava yield61Soybean imports 10 3Rice retail price 14 5Cattle producer price 18 7Buffalo meat stock change Sugarcane yield62Paddy exports 10 4Maize retail price 14 6Buffalo producer price 18 8Pork stock change Soybean yield63Maize exports 10 5Cassava retail price 14 7Chicken producer price 18 9Chicken meat stock change Paddy farmgate price64Cassava exports 10 6Sugarcane retail price 14 8Beef producer price 19 0Beef meat beginning stocks Maize farmgate price65Sugarcane exports 10 7Soybean retail price 14 9Buffalo meat production price 19 1Buffalo meat beginning stocks Cassava farmgate price66Soybean exports 10 8Rice, wet season harvested area 15 0Beef retail price 19 2Chicken meat beginning stocks Sugarcane farmgate price67Paddy stock changes 10 9Rice, dry season harvested area 15 1Buffalo meat retail price 19 3Beef meat ending stocks Soybean farmgate price68Maize stock changes 11 0Rice, upland harvested area 15 2Pork retail price 19 4Buffalo meat ending stocks Paddy crop calendar69Cassava stock changes 11 1Rice, wet season yield 15 3Chicken retail price 19 5Pork meat ending stocks Maize crop calendar70Sugarcane stock changes 11 2Rice, dry season yield 15 4Cattle inventory number 19 6Chicken meat ending stocks Cassava crop calendar71Soybean stock changes 11 3Rice, upland yield 15 5Buffalo total inventoy number 19 7Beef meat export quantity Sugarcane crop calendar72Paddy domestic supply 11 4Rice, wet season production 15 6Pig total inventory number 19 8Buffalo meat export quantity Soybean crop calendar73Maize domestic supply 11 5Rice, dry season production 15 7Chicken total inventory number 19 9Pork meat export quantity Paddy cost of production74Cassava domestic supply 11 6Rice, milled production 15 8Cattle slaughtered number 20 0Chicken meat export quantity Maize cost of production75 Sugarcane domestic supply 11 7Rice food use 15 9Buffalo slaughtered number 20 1Beef meat export value total Cassava cost of production76Soybean domestic supply 11 8Maize food use 16 0Pig slaughtered number 20 2Buffalo meat export value total Sugarcane cost of production 77Paddy feed use 11 9 Cassava food use 16 1 Chicken slaughtered number 20 3 Pork meat export value total Soybean cost of production78Maize feed use 12 0Sugarcane food use 16 2Beef meat per slautered animal 20 4Chicken meat export value total Paddy imports quantity79Cassava feed use 12 1Soybean food use 16 3 Buffalo meat per slaughtered animal 20 5Beef meat import quantity Maize imports quantity80Sugarcane feed use 12 2Rice food use per capita 16 4Pork meat per slaughtered animall 20 6Buffalo meat import quantity Cassava imports quantity81Soybean feed use 12 3Maize food use per capita 16 5 Chicken meat per slaughtered animal 20 7Pork meat import quantity Sugarcane imports quantity82Paddy seed 12 4Cassava food use per capita 16 6Beef meat production 20 8Chicken meat import quantity Soybean imports quantity83Maize seed 12 5Sugarcane food use per capita 16 7Buffalo meat production 20 9Beef meat import value total Paddy exports quantity84Cassava seed 12 6Soybean food use per capita 16 8Pork meat production 21 0Buffalo meat import value total Maize exports quantity85Sugarcane seed 12 7 Sugarcane processing use 16 9 Chicken meat production 21 1 Pork meat import value total

5.Implementation Structure Project Manager Consultant FAO Other Institution Training Workshop Developing F Model Broadening necessary data Improving Database JIRCAS AFSIS Expert AFSIS Secretariat FP Member FP Member Training Workshop Trainees 12

6. Responsibilities of Member countries (1) 6-1 Member countries collaborate in the implementation and development of forecasting information conducted in ASEAN Member States. 6-2 Member countries must prepare the working group for F Model activity. This working group consists of a chief (FP member) and two trainee staffs. 13

6. Responsibilities of Member countries (2) 6-3 Trainees are requested as follows: Bachelor level of statistics, economics, agriculture or any related field. Have a basic knowledge of Regression technique Responsible for agriculture statistics Fluent in English, written and spoken is a must It must be less than 50 years 6-4 Trainee staffs have to work to the exercises that indicated by training after the training. 6-5 Member countries are requested to prepare the data according to the “guideline for collecting data” for F Model activity. 14

7. Continuity to obtain and tackle To guarantee a prompt response and dissemination of acquired knowledge and information with the members of working group, pioneering participant of this training would be responsible to obtain and tackle the succeeding trainings to be conducted. Training certificate would be given to a trainee who complete the presentation in workshop by each year. 15

FAO TCPFP Workshop and the First AFSIS F Model Training Program TimeJuly 9 TueJuly 10 WedJuly 11 ThuJuly 12 FriJuly 13 Sat 9:00 – 10:30 (AFSIS F Model Training) Orienteering Opening session Presentation -Keynote lecture (Dr. Aprichart Pongsrihadulchai) -Implementation plan for F Model activity (Mr. Kimura) Lecture and practice -Single equation model Testing Function type (Dr. Kusano, JIRCAS) Lecture -Agricultural Economic Situation- (Dr. Aree Wiboonpongse) Chiang mai university Lecture and practice -Single equation model- Elasticity Projection (Dr. Kusano, JIRCAS) Presentation and discussion -Data definition for F Model (rice) (Mr. Kimura) 11:00 – 12:30 13:30 – 15:00 Lecture and practice -Single equation model- Basic statistics Regression (Dr. Kusano, JIRCAS) Lecture -Fundamental regression- (Dr. Aree Wiboonpongse) Chiang mai university Lecture -Econometric Apply- (Dr. Aree Wiboonpongse) Chiang mai university Lecture and practice -Single equation model- Dummy and policy Further development (Dr. Kusano, JIRCAS) Homework for Trainee (Dr. Kusano, JIRCAS, Mr. Kimura) Closing session 15:30 – 17:00 16

Dr. Eiichi Kusano Researcher with fixed term Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan Educational background: Name and place Years attended DegreesMain subjects FromTo Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Tokyo, Japan Ph.D. (Doctor of Agriculture) Comprehensive development study on semi-arid area in China Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Master of Agriculture Study on surplus labor in China Ibaraki University, Ibaraki, Japan Bachelor of AgricultureRural development model study in Japan Instructor (permanent) 17

Dr. Aree Wiboonpongse Professor Agricultural Economics and Extension, Faculty of Agriculture, Chiangmai University Educational background: Name and placeYears attendedDegrees University of Illinois, United States Of America 1981 Ph.D. (Agricultural Economics ) The Australia National University, Australia 1977 M.S. (Agricultural Development Economics) Kasetsart University, Thailand 1969 B.A. ( Cooperative Economics ) Instructor (non- permanent) 18