Elena Filchuk, Igor Ashik, Vladimir Pavlov

1st stage Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations on the World ocean and the seas of the Arctic ocean, in particular Barents and Norwegian Seas based on the literature sources. 2nd stage Creation of the climatic data base by sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters a basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas). 3rd stage Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region; to reveal and to analyze relationships of cause and effect of long-period level oscillations and factors their defining PLAN OF RESEARCH

factor 1. Sea level change as a result of the water characteristics changes (steric change): density, salinity, temperature 2. Ocean volume change : a) with impressments of the water to ice sheets formation of theAntarctica and Greenland b) as a result of the ice sheets melting of the Antarctica and Greenland 3. water rotation change as a result of climatic oscillation (runoff,subterranean waters, evaporation, precipitations) 4. Sea level change as a result of the atmosphere pressure effect and the wind 5. Isostatic movements: a) glacioisostasy b) hydroisostasy c) sediment-isostasy 6. Sediment accumulation on the ocean floor 7. Oscillatory tectonic movement of the land: a) cutting b) geosynclinal c) seismic disturbance 8. Deformation of geoid 9. Speed of the rotation the Earth change 10.Water entry from mantle 11. Longoperiodical tide

parameter Data format Observation period Data sourse atmosphere pressure Grib, CDF NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind Grib, CDF NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, European National Meteorological Centr(ENMC) river runoff Txt Database AARI North Atlantic Oscillation Txt http://ns.noaa.gov salinity Txt consolidated database thermohaline characteristic Barents Seas, of database AARI

For formation of level data base were used Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) and AARI.

Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations Observed sea level trends

Reykjavik Stavanger Torshavn Bergen Maloy Kristiansund Heimsjo Alesund Kjolsdal Trondheim Bodo Rorvik 0.64 Harstad Hammerfest Narvik T romso Kabelvag Linakhamari Evenskjaer Honningsvag Belyi Nos Poljarnyi Russkaja Gavan Murmansk Pikshuev cape Malye Karmakuly Krenkelja Barentsburg Teriberka Bugrino Bolvanskii Nos Subarea South part of Norwegian sea Subarea North part of Norwegian sea Region of Barents sea

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Tromso

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Heimsjo

Annual sea level oscillation, autocorrelation function and power spectrum for Barentsburg

Correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure was calculated. After analyzing the results it is possible to spike about: 1.Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position. 2. For most of stations the central and north parts of Norwegian Sea are regions of location of maximum correlation coefficients between sea level and surface pressure. Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and factors their defining. 1. Surface pressure

Correlation between annual sea level on Bergen and Sea level pressure BERGEN

Correlation between annual sea level on Narvik and Sea level pressure NARVIK

Analyze of connection between of longoperiodical sea level changes on Barents and Norwegian seas and factors their defining. 2. WIND 1.Maximum coefficient correlation does not take place at the point of station position. 2.Location of maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and wind does not take place at the point maximum correlation coefficient between sea level on stations and annual sea level pressure. 3.Barentsburg station has 2 regions with approximately equal maximum coefficient correlation (0.709 for 60N, 2.5E and for 87N, 20E). However, effective storm surges direction of the wind on this region differs. 4.For most of stations the south part of Norwegian Sea is region of location of maximum coefficient correlation (table 1).

stationscorrelation coefficient (maximum) location of correlation coefficient (maximum) wind direction Bergen N 20 0 ES-ES-E Barentsburg N 2,5 0 ES Barentsburg20, N 20 0 EE Heimsjo N ES-WS-W Vardo0, N EN Narvik0,8462,5 0 N ES-W Teriberka0,7862,5 0 N ES Poljarnoe0,7962,5 0 N 5 0 ES-W Liinkhamari0,8062,5 0 N ES-W Kabelvag0, N ES-W Bodo N 7.5ES-W Trondheim ° N 20.0° EW

NARVIK

BARENCBURG

StationsNAOSev.DvinaPechoraStationsNAOSev.Dvina Pechora Reykjavik Tromso Bergen Hammerfest Maloy Honningsvag Kjolsdal Vadso Alesund Vardo Kristiansund Liinkhamari Heimsjo Pikshuev Trondheim Murmansk Rorvik Poljarnoe Ny-Alesund Teriberka Barentsburg Bugrino Bodo Malye Karmakuly Kabelvag Mys Bolvanski Andenes Krenkelja Evenskjaer Belyi Nos Hatstad Russkaja Gavan Narvik Sev.Dvina Pechora

Decadal mean anomalies of the sea level (cm) of Arctic ocean (modeling results) 50s70s 60s 80s

Forecast of sea level changes on Norwegian and Barents seas using water and ice codynamics model (AARI).

CONCLUSION all work 1) The Analysis of studies of the long-period levels oscillations for World Ocean by the literature sources was carried out. 2) The climatic database for sea level, hydrological and meteorological parameters on basis of hydrometeorological stations of the studied region (Barents and Norwegian Seas) have created. The program package has been produced for work with data base. These programs calculate the basic statistics, power spectrum. 3) Time-space analysis of the sea level oscillations and the separate parameters of the climatic variability in different parts of the investigated region have carried out. Relationships of cause and effect of long-period levels oscillations and some defining factors (wind, pressure, NAO, river runnof) have been analyzed.