Continuous Stakeholder Feedback: Methodologies for Improving Adoption and User-friendliness of Climate Variability Forecasts Norman E. Breuer Victor E. Cabrera Peter E. Hildebrand March 2004
The Southeast Climate Consortium A multidisciplinary, multi-institutional initiative among the UF, FSU, UM, AU, UG, and UAH for research, extension, education, and training related to climate- based management of agriculture and natural resources.
Working at the Interface Forest Reserve Small- scale Farmers Plantation s ClimateWater Agriculture People
The Southeast Climate Consortium Immediate Objective Development of a climate-based Decision Support System for farmers available via the Internet
The Southeast Climate Consortium Target Audience: The Cooperative Extension Service and through them, to all stakeholders in AL, FL & GA Funding: NOAA - Office of Global Programs and the Risk Management Agency of the U. S.D.A.
The SECC Decision Support System Problem with DSSs*: non adoption short-term use Due to: deterministic nature exaggerated expectations other * McCown, et al Agricultural Systems 74
The Southeast Climate Consortium Florida, Georgia, Alabama Agricultural Production 1.Peanuts 2.Tomato 3. Livestock 4. Potato Water 1.Quality 2.Quantity
Users Specific and Diverse needs End products Whole Farm Models Testing Prototype products Participatory Rural Appraisals Participatory Methodology Calibration and Validation Crop models Climate models Participatory Methodology Adapted from Bastidas 2001
Feedback Loops Time Adoption With constant interaction among research, extension and farmer, diffusion can “take off” sooner and continue longer Rogers 1995 modified by J. Ashby, pers. Comm. 2003
Participatory Rural Appraisal: Sondeo Multidisciplinary team Rapid appraisal Open ended interviews Preliminary insight
Participatory Modeling Understanding the farm system Preliminary modeling –LP, Dynamic, etc. Calibration with stakeholders Final modeling Validation with independent stakeholders
Working with Farmers
Beef Cattle in North Central Florida 38 Ranchers preliminary phase 12 Ranchers validation phase Hypothetical 400-acre ranch Management Options –Stocking rate –Ryegrass planting –Hay purchase Economic Output
Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 4. Modeled herd size over 40 years of known climate effect.
Beef Cattle in North Central Florida Figure 3. Two-year economic output values for nine scenarios tested and probability of occurrence.
Dairy Farms in North Florida 21 farmers preliminary phase 6 focus groups 3 farmers expected validation phase Individual farms modeled: dynamic and LP Novel inclusions –Markov-Chain cow flow modeling –Environmental interaction (nitrate leaching) –Crop models Economic Output
Dairy Farms in North West Florida Prototype
Dairy Farms in North West Florida
Dairy Farms in North West Florida Optimization
Conclusions It is possible to develop models with stakeholder involvement With participation: - User friendliness - trustworthiness - better performance with less need for initial input data set Enhances probability of adoption and use of climate-based tools and products Will be added to tools section of SECC DSS