“A Reality Check” Matt Herb, President OSTA, OSC, OSGL October 23, 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

“A Reality Check” Matt Herb, President OSTA, OSC, OSGL October 23, 2009

General economic conditions Uncertainty of future Unemployment Lower housing starts Different priorities Higher input costs for consumers Fuel Fertilizer Chemicals Labor Lower tax revenues - lower spending on schools, parks, roadsides Lower golf rounds Lower beef cattle numbers, milk prices Stronger dollar against foreign currencies

Higher Fuel Fertilizer Chemicals Labor (Oregon is #2 for minimum wage) More Legislation that increases cost Burn ban Bio-fuels Taxes User fees Licenses

5 year average usage253 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage228 million July 1, 2009 carryover 50 million ’09 est. crop216 million July carryover38 million 14 month supply

5 year average usage213 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage146 million ‘09/’10 est. usage166 million (20 mill less for MN & CAN) July 1, 2009 carryover100 million ’09 est. crop154 million July carryover88 million 18 month supply

5 year average usage228 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage228 million ‘09/’10 est. usage198 million (30 mill add MO K-31) July 1, 2009 carryover120 million ’09 est. crop210 million July carryover138 million 20 month supply

5 year average usage15 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage10 million ‘09/’10 est. usage10 million July 1, 2009 carryover 3 million ’09 est. crop13 million July carryover 6 million 19 month supply

4 year average usage5.5 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage3.5 million ‘09/’10 est. usage3.5 million July 1, 2009 carryover2 million ’09 est. crop5 million July carryover3.5 million 24 month supply

4 year average usage2.8 million lbs. ‘08/’09 usage1.9 million ‘09/’10 est. usage1.9 million July 1, 2009 carryover 1 million ’09 est. crop4.5 million July carryover3.5 million 34 month supply

Reduce acres to match current demand Alternative crops Reduce inputs and input cost Reduce labor Explore programs- FSA, NCRS, ODA, etc. Develop a cropping plan Develop a marketing plan

Decide to be profitable! Decide to think outside the box! Decide to control fear and greed! Decide to think “industry” instead of “self”!