Managerial Economics Jack Wu

NTUC Income: Premiums for $200,000 Life Insurance femalemale civil servant group policy maximum coverage limit no medical exam $240 individual policy no maximum coverage medical exam required $991$1849

Imperfect/Asymmetric Information imperfect information – absence of certain knowledge (uncertainty) asymmetric information -- one party has better information than the other party with worse information also suffers from imperfect information

Risk uncertainty about benefit or cost arises from imperfect information risk-averse person prefers certain payment to uncertain payments with same expected value risk-averse person will buy insurance

supply of good vintage combined supply of good and bad vintage actual demand (marginal benefit) demand (marginal benefit) for good vintage Quantity (Thousand cases a month) Price (Hundred $ per case) Wine Market Equilibrium, I

Wine Market Equilibrium, II actual demand = combined supply of good and bad at equilibrium price actual marginal benefit (adjusted for prob of getting bad vintage) = price actual marginal cost (of good vintage) = price

Adverse Selection economic inefficiency possible market failure

0 2 8 F8 c d combined supply of good and bad vintages actual demand (marginal benefit) demand (marginal benefit) for good vintage Quantity (Thousand cases a month) Price (Hundred $ per case) Market Failure, I

Market Failure, II conventional market: when supply exceeds demand, lower price restores equilibrium wine market with adverse selection: lower price drives out better vintages, leaving even worse adverse selection

Life Insurance, I Coverage = $200,000 for 43 year-old male NTUC Income Singapore Pacific Century Hong Kong Group policy$240$212 Individual (non- smoker) $1849$466 Individual (smoker)$1849$1120

Life Insurance, II group policy avoids adverse selection individual policy attracts adverse selection no maximum policy coverage medical examination required

Appraisal characteristic is objectively verifiable potential gain covers appraisal cost

less informed party indirectly elicits other party’s characteristic through structured choice better informed party must be differentially sensitive to the choice Screening

Who ’ s the real mother? Solomon: “ Divide the living child into two, and give half to the one, and half to the other. ” Woman whose son was alive: “ give her the living child, and by no means slay it. ” Other woman: “ It shall be neither mine nor yours; divide it. ”

Indirect Segment Discrimination restricted vis-a-vis unrestricted air fares separate cable channels vis- à -vis bundle cents-off coupons

Multiple Asymmetries screening mechanisms may conflict example -- auto insurance policy: higher deductible screens out bad drivers screens out more risk-averse

Auction auctions to sell: seller doesn ’ t know buyers ’ valuations auctions to buy: buyer doesn ’ t know sellers ’ costs use competitive pressure to force bidders to reveal their information

Auction Methods open/sealed bidding discriminatory/non-discriminatory pricing reserve price

Winner ’ s Curse In auction to buy: winning bidder over-estimates the true value In auction to sell: winning bidder under-estimates the true cost More severe where more bidders true value/cost more uncertain sealed-bid auction

better informed party communicates characteristic through signal cost of signal differs according to characteristic  self-selection  signal is credible Signaling

Signaling: Examples auto manufacturers – extended warranty Intuit – money-back guarantee on Quicken U.S. publicly-listed companies -- dividends

Advertising as a signal advertising expenditure must be sunk buyers must be able to detect poor quality information about poor quality must quickly spread and cut into seller ’ s future business

Contingent Contract Payment is contingent on realized characteristic: international trade -- buyback (supplier of technology must buy future product) mergers and acquisitions – payment in shares

Contingent Fee Lawyer has better information about likelihood of success at trial contingent fee time-based fee