Rapid Risk Assessment Preparedness, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation Workshop U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Rockville, Maryland Pacific Northwest.

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Presentation transcript:

Rapid Risk Assessment Preparedness, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation Workshop U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Rockville, Maryland Pacific Northwest National Laboratory November 15-17, 2005

2 TeamTeam Gariann Gelston (HERS), Project Manager Gene Whelan (NR), Technical Lead Dave Millard (ISE), EMAdvantage Lead Chitra Sivaraman (ISE) Tim Downing (ISE) Mitch Pelton (HERS), FRAMES Lead Dennis Strenge (HERS) Bonnie Hoopes (HERS) Tarang Khangaonkar (MSL), EFDC Lead Zhaoqing Yang (MSL) Cheegwan Lee (MSL) Lon Hachmeister (MSL) Mary Simpson/Joan Young (HERS), DS Lead

3 “Multi-Thematic” Modeling Supporters 1.Engineer Research & Development Center, ACOE 2.National Environmental Research Laboratory, ORD, EPA 3.Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC 4.Office of Radiation and Indoor Air, OAR, EPA 5.Office of Environmental Management, DOE 6.Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, DOE 7.Multimedia Modeling: $23M ($8M for FRAMES) 8.FEMIS/EMAdvantage: $42M

4 PurposePurpose Provide an illustrative example that combines a multi-thematic modeling capability with emergency planning & response tools to create an automated system, which provides a real-time linkage between scientific and emergency-response communities.

5 IntroductionIntroduction 1.Preparedness, Response, Recovery, & Mitigation a. Air is common b. Now easily link soil, surface water, groundwater, exposure pathway/routes, decision support, etc. c. Integrated Multi-thematic capability, illustrating water 2.Not Vaporware a. Simulated Sensor Data b. Pre-run 3-D surface water flow and transport c. Real site with real data d. Demonstration of actual software actually running

6 PropositionProposition 1.Release of an unknown contaminant, unknown strength, unknown location to a water body, where a nearby population is potentially exposed 2.Question: What is the potential impact to the surrounding area, and what response plan do you implement, if the contaminant levels are unacceptable? 3.Operate Status Board Command & Control system linked with “Multi-thematic Modeling” running in the background

7 Preparation Work 1.Spatial description of siteSpatial description of site 2.SensorsSensors 3.Contaminants of Concern (CoC) 4.Exposure scenarios/pathways per zoneExposure scenarios/pathways per zone 5.Fate & Transport Models (Calibrate/Validate) 6.Protective/Response Action Plans 7.Protective Action Thresholds and RecommendationsProtective Action Thresholds and Recommendations

8 Demonstration Steps 1.Operational System 2.Status Board notification through sensorsStatus Board notification through sensors 3.Incident IdentificationIncident Identification 4.Surface Water Back CalculationSurface Water Back Calculation 5.Surface Water Transport Forward CalculationSurface Water Transport Forward Calculation 6.Risk Impact AnalysisRisk Impact Analysis 7.Post Protective Action RecommendationsPost Protective Action Recommendations

9 Demonstration Steps (cont’d) 7.Choose and Implement best-fit Protective Action Plan 8.Evaluate differences between Protective Action Recommendations and Final Protective Action Decision 9.Re-evaluate in real-time as the assessment requires

10 Relationship Between Incident Characterization and Emergency Response & Recovery ‘STATIC’ GEO- SPATIAL DATA ‘STATIC’ GEO- SPATIAL DATA SENSOR DATA INCIDENT INFORMATION INCIDENT INFORMATION WEATHER INCIDENT CHARACTERIZATION HAZARD ANALYSIS Area Affected Impact Estimates Times / Durations CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT Population Critical Infrastructure INCIDENT CHARACTERIZATION HAZARD ANALYSIS Area Affected Impact Estimates Times / Durations CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT Population Critical Infrastructure SITE SPECIFIC DATA SITE SPECIFIC DATA PRODUCTS EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE Examine Incident Characterization Information Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions Identify and execute Plans and Annexes Transition from initial response, to sustained response Transition from Response to Recovery EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & RESPONSE Examine Incident Characterization Information Autonomously Make Protective Action Decisions Identify and execute Plans and Annexes Transition from initial response, to sustained response Transition from Response to Recovery REPORTS ALERTS PRODUCT TRANSFER SUMMARY

BACK Spatial Description of Site (water, shoreline, land zones; facilities)

12 S2 S1 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 Sensor Locations 2 km BACKSensorsSensors

13 BACK Exposure Scenarios/Pathways per Zone

14 Protective Action Thresholds and Recommendations (Water, Shoreline, Land) BACK

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 Sensor Locations 2 km Status Board Notification through Sensors BACK

S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 Sensor Locations 2 km Incident Identification (sensors exceed threshold) BACK

S3 S4 S5 S8 S9 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 Sensor Locations Initial Release S1 S2 S6 S7 2 km Surface Water Back Calculations BACK Estimate Potential Release Points and Source Strengths

Surface Water Transport Forward Calculation Forward Back

Previous Slide Surface Water Transport Forward Calculation ▼ Chosen Source Back

Risk Impact Analysis BACK ● Overlay plume, which exceeds a threshold, on to zones ● Identify zones directly impacted by plume ● Identify zones indirectly impacted

Post Protective Action Recommendations (Water, Shoreline, Land) BACK

Rapid Risk Assessment Contaminant Concentration Detects Time Scenario Comparison Hazard Index Response Cost ShowerGarden Drinking Probability of Exceedence Concentration Is this significant?