The Ocean-Climate Nexus: Key messages from the EMB 5 th Forum Jan Mees Chair, European Marine Board European Academy of Sciences Symposium Climate change impacts on ocean, food production, health and the economy Brest, October 2015

A pan-European marine science partnership

EMB mission “The European Marine Board provides a pan‐European platform for its member organizations to develop common priorities, advance marine research, and bridge the gap between science and policy in order to meet future marine science challenges and opportunities.”

Transferring knowledge to the core of marine research policy

16 years of achievement and counting…

The Navigating the Future Series Reflection on current status and state-of-the-art; Anticipating emerging societal challenges; Horizon-scanning for seas and oceans research priorities; A blueprint to guide science and policy agenda at EU and national levels. 14pp. 26pp. 71pp. 203pp.

Launch of Navigating the Future IV Launched in Brussels on 20 June 2013 in the company of: Maire Geoghegan-Quinn – EU Commissioner for Research, Innovation & Science Maria da Graca Carvalho – MEP, Rapporteur for the Horizon 2020 programme The Marine Board plays a major role in promoting marine science and technology in Europe... Navigating the Future IV is particularly timely for the first Horizon 2020 programme...a valuable source of ideas and common priorities in the area of marine sciences, providing a vision for sceince and technology in Europe. Máire Geoghegan-Quinn EU Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science

NAVIGATING THE FUTURE IV CHAPTER 3. Changing oceans in a changing Earth system

Major climate change trends and impacts on the marine environment (1) 1.Physical properties and motions of the seas Sea-level rise Sea surface temperature The thermohaline circulation Stratification

Major climate change trends and impacts on the marine environment (2) 2.Melting Arctic sea ice 3.Movements of marine taxa to higher latitudes 4.Shifts in timing of critical biotic cycles 5.Other trends and multiple stressors Ocean acidification De-oxygenation Coastal eutrophication Fisheries impacts Non-indigenous species

Research recommendation for climate change Improved methods to reduce the uncertainty of climate change projections Meltwater run-off The strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation The efficiency of ocean carbon uptake Taking account of the full range of spatial and temporal scalesAn integrated, robust and efficient observing networkSupport adaptation and mitigation

3 teleconferences Consensus Statement Joint drafting expert (7) selection Expert reviews (16) & approval from Board members of 2 organizations

Consensus Statement: A call from the ocean research community To the COP21: – Recognize fundamental role of the ocean in the climate system – Deliver an agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emission and curb damage to the ocean & its ecosystem – Understand & promote the role of ocean and climate research To research Funders: – Support ocean-climate research & observation programmes

Consensus Statement Key role of the ocean – Ocean is a key component of the global climate system – Climate change alters physical, chemical and biological properties of the oceans. Marine ecosystems have responded and will continue to respond to these changes – Human societies depend on ocean services, which are sensitive to climate change – Successful adaptation and mitigation strategies must consider the ocean But, key uncertainties remain…

Gaps and needs Insufficient understanding of some key processes, e.g., – mixing in the ocean interior – interactions between ecosystem functioning and biodiversity Sustaining and enhancing the ocean observing system – integrating biogeochemical and biological observations – improving coverage (space and time) – filling gaps in the deep ocean Combining advanced models with observations International cooperation

Towards more reliable projections Unified System (Climate, Ecosystem, Humans) Biodiversity Scale interactions Modeling Process Understanding Multidisciplinary Multidimensional Synchronous Long-term Observations

Thank you