California to Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia and Beyond? Can Subnational Arrangements Fill the Gap? Professor Sharon Mascher Faculty of Law, University of Calgary Honorary Fellow, University of Western Australia

Outline 1.Canada’s GHG Emissions Profile 2.Canadian Federal Government’s existing Climate Policy and Regulation 3.Sub-National and Regional Initiatives 4.Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation a. Quebec b. Ontario c. British Columbia) d. Alberta 5.Role of Sub-National Arrangements going forward?

1. Canada’s GHG Emissions Profile

Source: Pembina Institute Backgrounder at 1. Canada’s GHG Emissions Profile

2. Existing Federal Climate Policy and Regulation  “The Government of Canada is implementing a sector-by-sector regulatory approach to reduce GHG emissions that protects the environment and supports economic prosperity.”  Focus — Transportation (regulations relating to passenger automobiles, light trucks, heavy vehicles) — Renewable fuels (*current constitutional challenge) — Electricity (Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-Fired Generation of Electricity Regulations (SOR/ ))  Missing?

2. Existing Federal Climate Policy and Regulation Source: Pembina Institute, Top Stories from Canada’s Latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

3. Sub-National and Regional Initiatives  Western Climate Initiative — Canadian members: British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba  Pacific Coast Collaborative — Alaska, British Columbia, California, Oregon and Washington  Under 2 MOU (International) — Canadian provincial signatories: British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Northwest Territories  Pan American Action Statement — Canadian provincial signatories: Ontario, Quebec, Nfld  North America 2050 — Canadian members: British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba

1. Canada’s GHG Emissions Profile

3. Sub-National and Regional Initiatives Source: Pembina Institute, Top Stories from Canada’s Latest Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Quebec Source: Groupe de recherche sur les ressources énergétiques des bassins sédimentaires du Québec

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Quebec  Targets: — 6% below 1990 levels ✔ — 37.5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030  Key Policy Initiatives: — levy based on carbon content of fossil fuels (2006) — cap-and-trade system  linking with California January 2014

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Ontario  Targets: — 15% below 1990 levels by 2020 — 37% below 1990 levels by 2030 — 80% below 1990 levels by 2050  Key Policy Initiatives: — Complete coal phase out  “the single largest GHG reduction measure in North America” — Green Energy and Green Economy Act (2009)  energy efficiency  Feed-in tariff for renewable energy  amended approval processes for renewable energy  April 13, 2015 – Premier announced Ontario will introduce a cap and trade scheme — intention to link with Quebec and California

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Ontario Source: Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change: Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015:

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Ontario Source: Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change: Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015:

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: BC  Targets: — 6% below 2007 by 2012 ✔ — 33% below 2007 levels by 2020 — 80% below 2007 levels by 2050  Key Policy Initiatives: — Revenue neutral carbon tax — carbon neutral government — Clean Energy Act  requires that at least 93% of the province’s electricity be generated by clean, renewable sources o BC Hydro’s generation portfolio currently exceeds 96% clean or renewable resources  Requires, by 2020, that at least 66% of BC Hydro’s future incremental power demand must be met through conservation and efficiency improvements — Commitment to “cleanest” LNG facilities in the world — Forests offsets protocol

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: BC

Source: BC Government Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2012

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Alberta  Targets: **new government and awaiting new climate policy!!! — Reduce emissions by 20 megatonnes by 2010 — Reduce emissions by 50 megatonnes by 2020 — Reduce emissions by 200 megatonnes by 2050  Result in “50 per cent below business as usual level and 14% below 2005 levels while maintaining economic growth”  Key Policy Initiative:  Specified Gas Emitters Regulation 2007 — baseline and credit, emission intensity approach — industrial facilities that emit over 100,000 tonnes of GHGs per year are required to reduce emission intensity by 12% (15% by January 1, 2016; 20% by January 1, 2017) relative to baseline established using average emissions — compliance measures15%  Reduce emission intensity  Use previously generated emission performance credits (from facilities that reduce intensity beyond target)  Purchase emissions offsets  Payment into a technology fund at a rate of $15/tC0 2 ($20/tC0 2 for 2016 and $30/tC0 2 for 2017).  Cost of intensity improvements and offsets effectively  Current Climate Leadership discussion – pre-Paris announcement?

4. Provincial Climate Policy and Regulation: Alberta Source: Pembina Institute, Power to Change: How Alberta Can Green its Grid and Embrace Clean Energy Share of Industrial GHG Emissions by Major Sector in Alberta

5. Role of Sub-National Arrangements Going forward?  New Canadian Federal Government policy — “We will ensure that the provinces and territories have adequate tools to design their own policies to meet these commitments, including their own carbon pricing policies.”  What role for sub-national arrangements to support forward momentum?? — As linkages build, might other provinces (AB) be encouraged to join? — Or, as linkages build, a variation of carbon clubs (al la William Nordhaus) form to punish those who don’t join?

Thank you / Merci