Evaluation of pollution levels of lead and PCB-153 over Central Asian (CA) countries within CAPACT project (preliminary results) Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Expected results  Evaluation of air concentrations and total depositions of lead and PCBs over CA countries  Contributions of regions of the Northern Hemisphere to pollution of CA countries by PCBs and contribution of CA countries to the pollution of other regions. Вклады различных регионов  Evaluation of transboundary pollution of CA countries by lead EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

EMEP reion Regional model  Extent – EMEP region  Resolution – 50×50 км 2 Hemispheric model  Extent – Northern Hemisphere  Resolution – 2.5°×2.5° Model versions EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Multicompartment MSCE-POP model Atmosphere Underlying surface Gusev A., Mantseva E., Shatalov V., and Strukov B Regional Multicompartment Model MSCE-POP 5/2005 Detailed desription: EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Emissions of PCB-153 in 2005 Breivik et al, 2007., Science of the Total Environ., 377, p Input data EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

PCB-153 emissions in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere in 2005 Input data America Africa Russia Europe South-Eastern Asia South- Western Asia Казахстан EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Annual mean air concentrations of PCB-153 in 2005 Model results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Depositions of PCB-153 in 2005 Model results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Planned: evaluation of transboundary pollution for each of Central Asia countries Transboundary pollution of Kazakhstan by PCB-153 America Africa Russia Europe South-Eastern Asia South- Western Asia Казахстан EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Main processes in MSCE-HM model Processes: Advection Turbulent diffusion Wet removal Dry depositions Chemical transformations in the atmosphere (Hg) Wind re-suspension Detailed description: Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metal transboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005 EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan EMEP calculation domain EMEP domain EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Extension of EMEP calculation domain to cover CA countries within CAPACT Extended calculation domain Preparation of input data: Land-cover Meteorology Emissions Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Emissions of lead in Europe and Central Asia in 2005 RegionData source Additional assumptions Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan TNO’2005 Interpolation between 2000 and 2010 Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan GEIA (1990) Reduction rate from 1990 to as for Russia Europe Official EMEP data of TNO estimates Remaining Asia and Africa GEIA (1990) Reduction rate from 1990 to as for Turkey Input data EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Total emission of lead in Central Asian countries in 2005 Input data EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Spatial distribution of lead emissions in 2005 Input data EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Wind re-suspensionAnthropogenic emissions ~ 970 t/y~ 840 t/y Comparison of emissions from anthropogenic sources and wind re- suspension in Central Asian countries (Pb) Input data EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Annual mean concentrations of lead in air in 2005 Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Air concentrations of lead Total emissions of lead (anthrop. and wind re-suspension) Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Total depositions of lead in 2005 Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Kyrgyzstan Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Tajikistan Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Turkmenistan Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Transboundary pollution in Central Asia Contributions of different sources to depositions in Uzbekistan Modelling results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan

Modification of MSCE-HM model to include Central Asian countries into modelling domain Completed Preparation of input data for the modified MSCE-HM model Completed Calculations of mean annual concentrations of lead and depositions for 2005 Preliminary results Estimation of annual transboundary transport of lead within CA region for 2005 Preliminary results EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan Current status and future plans

Evaluation of mean annual concentrations of PCB-153 in air and total annual depositions over CA region for 2005 Preliminary results Evaluation of annual transboundary transport of PCB-153 within CA region in 2005 Preliminary results for Kazakhstan Report in Russian and English; Publishing in the Internet at MSC-E site ( September 15 EMEP/MSC-E CAPACT, 4-6 July 2007, Almaty, Kazakhstan