Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Supplemental Upper Air Observations Supporting High Impact Events.

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Presentation transcript:

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Supplemental Upper Air Observations Supporting High Impact Events Lance Wood NWS Houston/Galveston and Don Conlee Texas A&M University

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston With the InterMet Systems 3050/3150, owning a radiosonde ground station became much more accessible to universities.  6-15K for fully capable system  About $275 in consumables for a typical launch Deepwater Horizon - Gulf Oil Spill  Asked by NWS to help with soundings at the spill site.  A&M purchased the IMet 3150 ultra-portable system (funded by Dr. Richard Orville), and found a ride of opportunity.  3 weeks: from idea to sail! Primary mission to locate underwater sub-surface oil plume

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston ~40 From 2011 to date: ~40 launches directly in support of NWS identified, high impact events. COMET partners grant A COMET partners grant supported this research during the core 3 year period of Demand for these high impact based soundings increased each year from 2012 to There have been many detailed descriptions of impact, and excellent evidence of the launches adding value to the efforts of multiple forecasting offices and to the SPC. most launches were triggered by NWS Houston/Galveston (HGX) Although most launches were triggered by NWS Houston/Galveston (HGX) for the potential of severe thunderstorms, several were requested by NWS San Antonio/Austin (EWX), NWS Dallas/Fort Worth (FWD), and the SPC. The data were also disseminated widely to broadcast and private meteorologists for their use. distribution grew with every launch. Our list of partners wishing to be included in the distribution grew with every launch.

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Comparison of the RAOB to the available GFS model sounding forecast. Differences noted - having impact on severe weather indices, even correcting for likely “web- bulb effect” on the temperature at 500 mb. GFS CAPE Comparison: CLL 2563 J/kg GFS 1618 J/kg

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston “While storms already were in progress over SE TX when I arrived, the sounding helped our shift more objectively estimate the thermodynamic and wind environment downstream across Sabine River valley, when the time came to replace the existing tornado watch over the region.” (Steve Corfidi, SPC Lead, Eve shift)

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Colder sub- freezing layer and deeper low- level saturation than model soundings.

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Upon receipt, almost instantly lead to an advisory. Areal extent of –RA, DZ not indicated by radar (below beam). Increased lead time for event.

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston Convection  RAOBS conducted within a few hours of convective initiation were the most useful, as the cap eroded quickly in very dynamic environments.  The greatest impact in convective situations was for the marginal cases (watch/no watch, TOR vs. SVR, degree of capping). Winter Weather  Benefits were greater than originally anticipated.  Every sounding we conducted had significant value.  Forecasters often struggle with the precipitation type - dependent on the details of the T/Td vertical profile. Aviation  The Houston CWSU found 3 launches (2 training/educational) beneficial for assessing area icing conditions that affected aircraft.

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston NWS operational impact with most launches (SPC, several WFOs). Ability to adjust from normal synoptic times. Collaboration between the NWS and TAMU was significantly advanced.  Benefit to students in understanding upper air observations, as well as exposure to NWS products/procedures.  Trained students were able to participate in the NSSL Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT)/Spring Experiment in May  Paved the way for the use of InterMet and Vaisala systems simultaneously in the 2013 Mesoscale Predictability Experiment. Can this be a model for an adaptive/supplemental sounding network? Sustainable?  Cost of 10 launches per year per station: $3K (cheap labor/universities) New collaboration with Dr. Chris Nowotarski - leading to NWP impact investigation.  Basic model and assimilation now in place to run past cases with and without the supplemental RAOB data.

Houston/Galveston, TX Weather Forecast Office NWSHouston