Developments in UK Business Demography Andrew Allen

UK Business Demography UK user demand Currently available data Changes to accommodate business demography Future demand

UK User Demand Main user BERR Monitoring changes in business population- briefing politicians Compare performance between regions Regional Development Agencies To monitor policy on creating and sustaining businesses High growth businesses – contributors to job creation

User Demand Both BERR and RDAs need data quickly Both central and local government demand Most users interested in regional variations or smaller geographical areas

Current Publication BERR use register data to publish VAT based enterprise registrations and de- registrations A narrower methodology – i.e. VAT only Business Demography will replace BERR VAT based publication Much broader - any active business included.

Need for Speed To satisfy UK users we have to publish as quickly as BERR VAT registrations Within a year of the reference period Problem with Business Demography – time lag for deaths - 2 years Reactivations

ONS Plan Publish on 28 November Birth, Death and Survival – SBS variables Births and Provisional Deaths 2007 Will include NACE 3 digit and County, District for 2007

Provisional Deaths 2007 Deaths will be provisional. An estimate for reactivations has been made A table showing raw deaths and the reactivation estimate will be published in the press release Risk, but more useful for users

Other Products Local Authority Indicators Births by 10,000 adult population for each Local Authority Businesses with <50 employment, with growth in employment between year 1 and year 2 - for each Local Authority

Enterprise versus Local Unit ONS regional demography being done using enterprises Considered a better indicator of entrepreneurship Methodology already in place UK register focussed on enterprise continuity LU continuity has been a problem

Future Demand Investigating creating sub–annual indicators of births and deaths Could use all data sources, but simplest to just use VAT VAT quickest source. Beware -administrative processes can confuse signal

VAT Births and Deaths

Summary User demand has encouraged quick demography results Balance of risk between speed and revisions Regional demography also produced Administrative data flows being explored for sub-annual demography.

Issues for Discussion Regional - Enterprise or LU Speeding up annual delivery Higher frequency data