OVER VIEW OF INDIAN POWER SECTOR INDIAN POWER SECTOR 27 th January, 2010

2 DEMAND SUMMARY OF ALL INDIA FORECAST ( AS PER 17th EPS REPORT)

INSTALLED CAPACITY (MW) AS ON ( TYPE_WISE ) Total Installed Capacity = 1,56,092 MW Fossil fuel based capacity=99,862 MW (64%)

GENERATION (BU) Total Generation = 746 BU Fossil fuel based Generation=590 BU (79%) * Estimated

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (PEAK)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11 th Plan Actual Power Supply Position for &

Anticipated Power Supply Position during 11th Plan Period (ENERGY)- Based on 62,374 MW Likely Addition in 11 th Plan Actual Power Supply Position for &

7 Total: 62,374 MW LIKELY CAPACITY ADDITION IN 11 th PLAN (With High Degree of Certainty)

GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITION DURING 12 th & 13 th PLANS

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY 1.Promote Hydro Project Development  Facilitate Statutory Clearances of Projects identified for 12 th Plan to ensure placement of orders for main packages in 11 th Plan 2. Promote Renewable Energy  RPOs to be specified by SERCs  Trading of Renewable Purchase Certificates  Implementation of solar mission Solar Mission – MoP finalizing strategies for development of Solar Projects totaling 1000 MW through NVVNL by MW roof top solar by SERCs to specify RPOs in respect of solar energy, MoP to make necessary modification in NEP/ Tariff Policy 3. Promoting New Gas based projects with a mix of indigenous Gas and imported RLNG with pooled pricing applicable to all the new and existing projects At least 27,000 MW Gas based capacity needs to be developed during 12 th and 13 th Plan.

LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd …… 4. Early notification of CEA regulation on construction of power plants indicating mandatory minimum efficiency levels 5. Retirement of Old and Inefficient Coal based Generating units –4000 MW each in 12 th and 13 th Plan. –List of projects to be retired during 11 th Plan has been finalised and 1100 MW already retired. 6. Implementation of National Enhanced Efficiency Renovation and Modernization Program. –To incentivise States, 50% of generation capability of the unit just before shut down for R&M may be compensated by way of additional allocation from unallocated quota during the normative period of shut down. –Low interest rate financing for enhanced efficiency based R&M.

7. Adoption of Clean Coal Technology Target:12th Plan – At least 50% of Coal based capacity should be super critical 13th Plan – All coal based capacity should be super critical Action: (a)Creation of Indigenous manufacturing capacity for super critical equipment (b)Incentivising Indigenous Manufacturers to ensure transfer of Super Critical Technology (c)Bulk tendering for 11x660 MW Super Critical units with mandatory indigenous manufacturing in progress. To initiate Bulk Tendering for 800 MW size units shortly after finalising orders for 660 MW. (d)Bulk tendering for projects based on Ultra super critical technology with mandatory indigenous manufacturing by (e)MOEF to be advised not to clear any Coal based projects w.e.f on Sub-critical technology. No coal linkages for Sub-critical plants for 13 th Plan (f)Propose zero custom duty and excise duty on Super Critical Plans supplied by indigenous manufacturers. LOW CARBON GROWTH STRATEGY Contd ……

8. Reduction of T&D losses to be accorded high priority –Franchise model to be promoted. –Implementation of R- APDRP to reduce technical and commercial losses. 9. Implementation of BEE Program  Implementation of ECBC in states  DSM in municipal, agriculture and buildings  Enforcement of energy intensity standards in Energy Intensive Industry and trading of emission reduction certificates.  CFL Bachat Lamp Yojna  Agriculture (Ag DSM) Pump efficiency improvement through ESCO.  Labeling of Appliances Labeling of Inverters on priority

THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-12 th Plan BAU MODERATE OPTIMISTIC Hydro Nuclear4800 Renewable (Excluding Solar)15000 Solar Retirements of Old inefficient Units04000 Gas Coal Sub-Critical Super Critical th Plan (Total) (Conventional)

BAUMODERATEOPTIMISTIC Hydro Nuclear Renewable Excluding Solar Solar Retirements of old inefficient units04000 Gas Coal Sub-Critical Super Critical th Plan (Total) (Conventional) THREE CAPACITY ADDITION SCENARIOS-13 th Plan (All Figures in MW)

Weighted Average Emissions Fuel- Wise (tCO 2 /MWh) * During With Latest Technology Coal (Super Critical HR 2326) Gas (CCGT η - 53%) 0.25 (CCHP η - 70%) Oil0.71 DG Sets0.61 Bio MassCo2 Neutral * Values calculated on gross generation

Emission Factor (kg/kwh of CO2)

STUDY RESULTS Based on EGEAS Program run for projected load curves –Gas based 70% PLF in all scenarios –Renewables – Must run –Coal based generation operated on merit order

Note: Figures for and are actual

Anticipated Percentage Reduction of Emission Factor (Kg/Kwh) for Power Sector w.r.t. year End of 10th Plan ( ) (Actual) End of 11th Plan ( ) End of 12th Plan ( ) End of 13th Plan ( ) BAU Moderate Optimistic