Ocean Analysis and Reanalysis: Phil Arkin, ESSIC, University of Maryland Background Concept and Implementation Issues

We need more comprehensive climate observations and we must make more efficient use of those that are and will be available. THE NEED FOR A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS BY K EVIN E. T RENBERTH, T HOMAS R. K ARL, AND T HOMAS W. S PENCE Because climate is changing, we need to determine how and why. How do we best track and provide useful information of sufficient quality on climate? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: November 2002, 83,

Observing system means a comprehensive approach, including Climate observations from both space-based and in situ platforms taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999).Climate observations from both space-based and in situ platforms taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999). A global telecommunications network and satellite data telemetry capacity to enable data and products to be disseminated.A global telecommunications network and satellite data telemetry capacity to enable data and products to be disseminated. A climate observations analysis capability that produces global and regional analyses of products for the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and hydrology, and the cryosphere, based on four dimensional data assimilation capabilities that process the multivariate data in a physically consistent framework to enable production of the analyses: for the atmosphere and oceans, land surface and so on.A climate observations analysis capability that produces global and regional analyses of products for the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and hydrology, and the cryosphere, based on four dimensional data assimilation capabilities that process the multivariate data in a physically consistent framework to enable production of the analyses: for the atmosphere and oceans, land surface and so on. Global climate models that encompass all parts of the climate system and which are utilized in data assimilation and in making ensemble predictions.Global climate models that encompass all parts of the climate system and which are utilized in data assimilation and in making ensemble predictions.

Strategic Plan for the Integrated Earth Observation System Interagency Working Group on Earth Observations THE GEOSS/IEOS TEMPLATE

What do we do now about the analysis issue? The goal is an accurate description of the current and past state of the complete coupled climate system – ocean, land, atmosphere, … The goal is an accurate description of the current and past state of the complete coupled climate system – ocean, land, atmosphere, … Such a description is the product of an analysis system Such a description is the product of an analysis system Ocean Climate Observing System(s) must be accompanied by appropriate Climate Analysis System(s) Ocean Climate Observing System(s) must be accompanied by appropriate Climate Analysis System(s) Utilize the analysis system to inform decisions on observing system design Utilize the analysis system to inform decisions on observing system design OCO set up a “Team of Experts” – scientists doing research with ocean observations – to get started on this by using the observations to perform new and interesting research OCO set up a “Team of Experts” – scientists doing research with ocean observations – to get started on this by using the observations to perform new and interesting research

Team of Experts: Goals/Objectives Use products from the observing system and other sources, including operational and experimental analyses, to document the ocean’s role in climate variability and change Use products from the observing system and other sources, including operational and experimental analyses, to document the ocean’s role in climate variability and change Regularly deliver a suite of ocean products that will describe sea level, ocean carbon content and its air-sea exchange, SST, surface currents, sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water, ocean heat and fresh water content and transports and sea ice thickness and concentrations Regularly deliver a suite of ocean products that will describe sea level, ocean carbon content and its air-sea exchange, SST, surface currents, sea surface pressure and air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum, and fresh water, ocean heat and fresh water content and transports and sea ice thickness and concentrations Assist the OCO in the development and implementation of appropriate quantitative performance metrics to evaluate the adequacy of the global ocean observing system in meeting the following climate goals: Assist the OCO in the development and implementation of appropriate quantitative performance metrics to evaluate the adequacy of the global ocean observing system in meeting the following climate goals: Document long term trends in sea level change Document long term trends in sea level change Document ocean carbon sources and sinks Document ocean carbon sources and sinks Document the ocean’s storage and global transport of heat and fresh water Document the ocean’s storage and global transport of heat and fresh water Document the ocean-atmosphere exchange of heat and fresh water Document the ocean-atmosphere exchange of heat and fresh water

Team of Experts: Deliverables Products: analyze the present state of the global ocean; evaluate how the present state compares with the past, including confidence/uncertainty updated at least annually. Publicly available and understandable by decision-makers and non-scientists wherever possible. Products: analyze the present state of the global ocean; evaluate how the present state compares with the past, including confidence/uncertainty updated at least annually. Publicly available and understandable by decision-makers and non-scientists wherever possible. Evaluation: help test the composite observing system against ocean climate variables and make recommendations at least annually for the evolution of the observing system. Evaluation: help test the composite observing system against ocean climate variables and make recommendations at least annually for the evolution of the observing system. Summary annual report: describe the state of the ocean with regard to the parameter(s) being analyzed and how the present state compares with the past. Contributions to State of the Ocean and other reports. Summary annual report: describe the state of the ocean with regard to the parameter(s) being analyzed and how the present state compares with the past. Contributions to State of the Ocean and other reports. Performance metrics: once developed, calculate and report to OCO quarterly and meet NOAA requirements. Performance metrics: once developed, calculate and report to OCO quarterly and meet NOAA requirements. Reports: Each performance metric project must file with OCO, quarterly if appropriate but at least annually, reports recommending evolution of the observing system and/or better use of satellite and in situ data to improve observing system performance. Reports: Each performance metric project must file with OCO, quarterly if appropriate but at least annually, reports recommending evolution of the observing system and/or better use of satellite and in situ data to improve observing system performance.

Progress Report Team has been established and has met several times by conference call and yesterday Team has been established and has met several times by conference call and yesterday Added GODAS team (Behringer/Xue) as ex-officio members Added GODAS team (Behringer/Xue) as ex-officio members Contributed ocean summaries for State of the Climate 2005 coordinated by NCDC for publication in BAMS Contributed ocean summaries for State of the Climate 2005 coordinated by NCDC for publication in BAMS Contributed Chapter 2 in State of the Ocean – edited by Joel Levy Contributed Chapter 2 in State of the Ocean – edited by Joel Levy Individual reports to follow – in particular, relate to GODAS wherever possible Individual reports to follow – in particular, relate to GODAS wherever possible Issues/questions: Issues/questions: What else should we be doing? What else should we be doing? Course corrections needed? Course corrections needed?