Higher Education and Research in 2020: A view from the World Bank CHEPS 20 th Anniversary Conference Enschede, 16 September 2004

CHEPS’scenarios on higher education & research

outline of the presentation... how different is the future? implications for developing countries implications for the World Bank

outline of the presentation... how different is the future?

the future has already arrived... n networks n new education technologies n business-like management practices n tuition fees, vouchers & student loans n multi-faceted quality assurance systems

convergence vs. diversity: are the scenarios mutually exclusive? n demographics n pedagogical model n basic vs. applied research n quality assurance n funding n presence of private providers

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain

new providers n long distance competition n franchise universities n corporate universities n media companies, libraries, museums & secondary schools n education brokers

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain n non-university institutions

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain n non-university institutions n academic & pedagogical revolution

academic dimensions n learning and motivation of the student n shape of the university n language policy n duration of degree validity n multi-disciplinarity n problem-based learning n technology-enhanced, interactive learning

life long learning

life long learning, 80 years later

university of the future? postgraduate studies first degree continuing education

GRIN: technologies of the future n genomics u personal genomics u RNAi therapy n robotics n information u synthetic biology u universal translation u Bayesian machine learning u distributed storage u power grid control n nanotechnology u nanowires u microfluidic optical fibers

the brick university

the click university

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain n non-university institutions n academic & pedagogical revolution n realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities

the volatile setting

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain n non-university institutions n academic & pedagogical revolution n realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities n regional role of universities

missing n global dimensions and influences u countries (China, India, USA) u borderless providers u brain drain n non-university institutions n academic & pedagogical revolution n realism about political economy of reform and potential disparities n regional role of universities n international role of European universities (business vs. solidarity)

outline of the presentation... how different is the future? implications for developing countries

is it at all relevant? aren’t the problems totally different?

similar challenges n new education and training needs linked to globalization and competitiveness agenda n increased competition from foreign providers n tapping the potential of new information & communication technologies

common quality concerns n diploma mills n franchise universities n virtual universities n e-learning n individualized learning

similar history n in most developing countries, universities built after European model u colonial model u Humboldt model

outline of the presentation... how different is the future? implications for developing countries implications for the World Bank

focus of support n country level n global level

at the country level n support for reforms through u policy dialogue u financing u technical assistance

flexibility n strategic planning to provide direction for change n close linkages with the economic and social environment for adequate feedback n ability to react and adapt rapidly

global public goods n brain drain n quality assurance for borderless education n trade barriers n ICT infrastructure (access and pricing) n intellectual property rights

the digital divide

Internet Users per 10,000 people, (2002)

conclusion

Forecasts are typically difficult to make,

especially about the future. Niels Bohr

what we can be sure of n changing technologies n changing demand: growing, more diversified, less local n growing competition (for resources and customers) u among similar institutions u among diverse providers

competing in the learning society...

a vision for the future