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scottmcleod.net (click on Workshops) dangerouslyirrelevant.org

The Law of Accelerating Returns Technological change is exponential (contrary to the common-sense "intuitive” linear view). 9

Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot 10

Logarithmic Plot 11

Logarithmic Plot 12

Logarithmic Plot 13

Logarithmic Plot 14

Logarithmic Plot 15

Logarithmic Plot 16

Logarithmic Plot 17

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR 18

19

Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot 20

Logarithmic Plot 21

Logarithmic Plot 22

Logarithmic Plot 23

We won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century. It will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). 24

25

Every year learning will be more …

open accessible transparent free real-time convenient networked connected global collaborative shared crowdsourced flexible adaptive individualized personalized mutimodal technological multimedia self-directed

open accessible transparent free real-time convenient networked connected global collaborative shared crowdsourced flexible adaptive individualized personalized EMPOWERI NG mutimodal technological multimedia self-directed

Are you moving fast enough?

Are you facilitating linear or exponential change in your school?

Doubling (or Halving) times Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size5.4 years Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar)1.5 years Average Transistor Price1.6 years Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle1.1 years Total Bits Shipped1.1 years Processor Performance in MIPS1.8 years Transistors in Intel Microprocessors2.0 years Microprocessor Clock Speed2.7 years 34

Logarithmic Plot 35

Linear Plot Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot 36