Europeanization and the Future of Central and Eastern Europe Kong Tianping Institute of European Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Factsheet Great transformation ( ) Great transformation ( ) Copenhagen criteria as rules to define whether a given country is eligible to join the EU (June 1993) Copenhagen criteria as rules to define whether a given country is eligible to join the EU (June 1993) 2004 CEE8 joined the EU, big eastward expansion 2004 CEE8 joined the EU, big eastward expansion 2007 Romania and Bulgaria became the member states of the EU Romania and Bulgaria became the member states of the EU.

Schengen enlargement, CEE 8 joined the Schengen area (December 2007) Schengen enlargement, CEE 8 joined the Schengen area (December 2007) EU and Croatia concluded accession negotiations (June 30, 2011) EU and Croatia concluded accession negotiations (June 30, 2011) Introduction of the Euro (Slovenia Jan. 2007, Slovakia, Jan. 2009, Estonia Jan. 2011) Introduction of the Euro (Slovenia Jan. 2007, Slovakia, Jan. 2009, Estonia Jan. 2011)

Presidency of the Council of the European Union (Slovenia 2008; Czech Republic 2009; Hungary and Poland 2011) Presidency of the Council of the European Union (Slovenia 2008; Czech Republic 2009; Hungary and Poland 2011)

How to define Europeanization? Europeanization is a means and an end; it is method as well as substance; it is a project and a vision. It signifies a certain political, socioeconomic, and cultural reality, but it is also an ideology, a symbol, and a myth. It has universal value by virtue of its historical, holistic, and globalizing nature. At the same time, its impact has internal consequences for Europe and an external significance for the rest of the world. (Othon Anastasaki) Europeanization is a means and an end; it is method as well as substance; it is a project and a vision. It signifies a certain political, socioeconomic, and cultural reality, but it is also an ideology, a symbol, and a myth. It has universal value by virtue of its historical, holistic, and globalizing nature. At the same time, its impact has internal consequences for Europe and an external significance for the rest of the world. (Othon Anastasaki)

Europeanization as "processes of (a) construction (b) diffusion and (c) implementation of formal and informal rules, procedures, policy paradigms, styles, "ways of doing things," and shared beliefs and norms (Radaelli) Europeanization as "processes of (a) construction (b) diffusion and (c) implementation of formal and informal rules, procedures, policy paradigms, styles, "ways of doing things," and shared beliefs and norms (Radaelli)

Europeanization as an end: different statuses from candidate to membership Europeanization as an end: different statuses from candidate to membership Europeanization as a means of insititutional change and modernazation: transition to democracy and market economy. CEE experiences Europeanization as a means of insititutional change and modernazation: transition to democracy and market economy. CEE experiences

Europeanization as a two-way process: Europeanization as a two-way process: EU: imposition of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, legislatures EU: imposition of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, legislatures CEE: Introduction of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, implementation of eu legislatures CEE: Introduction of eu criteria, norms, rules of game, implementation of eu legislatures

Some misconceptions Some misconceptions Accession means the end of Europeanization Accession means the end of the institutional change Accession would mean all the country's problems would be solved.

Europeanization is the way towards prosperity Europeanization is the way towards prosperity

How does Europeanization transform CEE? Institutional convergence: make the institutions more europeanized Institutional convergence: make the institutions more europeanized Policy convergence: Policy convergence: Identity formation Identity formation Political elite's european orientation Political elite's european orientation

accelerate catching-up process accelerate catching-up process growth matters for the catching-up

Catch-up Process in CEE 10 (GDP per capita in PPP, % of the EU-15 average) Country Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Lithuania Poland Slovakia Slovenia Bulgaria Romania

There is no guarantee for the catch-up closing the development gap between the CEE- 10 and the EU-15 countries remains the main challenge A short break from , CEE felt the pinch of the global financial crisis Catch-up process starts again

Europeanization and Prospect of CEE Europe is in crisis Europe is in crisis How serious is the crisis? Europe's Sovereign Debt Crisis ， PIIGs in trouble Greece: huge mountain of debt 340 bn euros;

two bailout (110bn euros for each programme) Greece's ability to repay its debt is questioned Possible scenario: default or exit from euro zone

Irish Republic Banking sysytem collapsed State took control and recapitalized them(70bn euros) IMF and EU bailout (85bn euros)

Portugal Portugal A shrinking economy straining its budget Bailout 78bn euros

Italy Italy Growing debt load in relation to GDP - the second-highest behind Greece in the eurozone Too big to be bailed out third largest economy in Europe and one of the largest bond markets in Europe

Spain Spain The housing boom turned to bust, leaving the country's banks loaded with bad debt and the highest unemployment rate in the eurozone an economy twice the size of the other three combined (Greece, Purtugal and Ireland)

Contagion of the crisis (market dynamic : domino effect of the markets when its debt rating was lowered) So far, no solution in sight Pessimistic point of view:

" Euro is breaking down" (Greenspan) The Crashing Euro (George Soros) Europe is in danger over eurozone crisis. "If the eurozone breaks up, the European Union will not be able to survive, with all the consequences that one can imagine."(Rostowski)

Eurozone crisis threatens world economy (IMF) The time for muddling through is fast slipping away ( Zoellick, head of the WB)

Way out Way out status quo: a currency not backed by a treasury; joint borders without a common migration policy; and a technocratic foreign policy divorced from national sources of power (Mark Leonard )

What is lacking is political will Fiscal union or political union? Crisis ( 危机 in chinese ） means both danger and opportunity

The Future of CEE the future of the CEE depends on the success of Europe project the future of the CEE depends on the success of Europe project EU enlargement will slow down after Croatia accession as eurozone crisis last many years ahead EU enlargement will slow down after Croatia accession as eurozone crisis last many years ahead Convegence or divergence in CEE Convegence or divergence in CEE

Central Europe will be better off than West Balkans The more European, the more successful New member states will be hesitate to join the eurozone before eurozone get its house in order New member states will be hesitate to join the eurozone before eurozone get its house in order

no opt-out any exception? case of Hungary Don't forget about the West Balkans Don't forget about the West Balkans West Balkans is more important than Eastern neighbors and Southern neighbors

Kosovo issue trouble spots in Serbia: Sandzak and the south Serbia Political stalemate in Bosnia (Federation and Republika Srpska) Macedonia name row with Greece

nation-building and state-buiding at initial stage Back to the past or return to Europe? Can EU change the West Balkans?

If europeanization goes well in CEE, the CEE will have a bright future. If europeanization goes well in CEE, the CEE will have a bright future.europeanization Institutional change economic growth

Thank you!