The Water is Rising: Strap on Your Wellies Global Warming: Impacts on New York City

Storms and Sea Level Rise

Future scenarios:MinMax Projected mid-century rise18 cm60 cm Projected rise by the 2080s24 cm110 cm (Gornitz 2000) The areas in red are projected to be inundated by a 1m sea level rise The current rate of sea level rise is largely due to thermal expansion of the seas and melting ice sheets.

The 100-year flood The 100-year flood height in New York City (a flood that has the probability of occurring once every 100 years) is almost 3 meters. It is projected to rise to 3.8 meters by the 2050’s, and from 3.2 to 4.2 meters by the 2080’s (Gornitz, 2000).

Infrastructure Communications and Power Infrastructure Powerlines Electric power generating units in the Tri-State area Sewers: Increased loads to the city's drainage systems, Dense urban development exacerbates drainage problems Transportation Infrastructure: Most rail and tunnel entrances are at elevations of 3 m or less John F Kennedy airport would be under an estimated 20 feet of water in the even of a Category 4 hurricane (Mandia).

Historical Floods/Storm Record Northeasters Tropical storms Tropical Storm Floyd (1999) Hurricanes

Levels of only 0.30–0.61 meters above that which occurred during a December 1992 storm could have produced massive inundation and loss of life (Gornitz, et al). JFK airport would be under an estimated 20 feet of water in the event of a Category 4 hurricane (Mandia).

Beginnning to Tabulate the Costs: Methodology Costs of Increased Snowfall snow overtime snowfall (in)salt usedcost of salt usedtotal cost ($) FY0123,900, , ,027,410 FY023,685, , ,503,570 FY0321,582, , ,295,230 Fy0416,378, , ,939,590 FY0522,153, , ,136,100 (Department of Sanitation)

Floodgates and levees: Costs of floodgates: $289.5 million – New York city $720 million – New York region Cost of levees: $600 million – New York city $1.5 billion – New York region (Bloomfield 1999, Gornitz, 2001)

Public Health: Can New York Handle the Heat?

Possible Scenarios for Calculating Heat-Related Deaths: 2050 Scenario A2: assumes rapid human population growth low environmental concerns, and lack of aggressive greenhouse gas regulations Scenario B2: assumes moderate population growth, more concern about environmental sustainability, and more aggressive greenhouse gas regulations Columbia Earth Institute, published in the American Journal of Public Health, which uses IPCC-SRES scenarios to asses possible heat-related New York.

Calculating percent change of heat-related deaths based on future scenarios allows us to see the great effect that heat has on human health. Percent Change is calculated by: (P2 – P1)/ P1 * 100 Without Climate Acclimatization Percent of Total Population (%) Percent Change (%) A B With Climate Acclimatization Percent of Total Population (%) Percent Change (%) 2050 A B * Calculations made based on Census 2000 population of New York ( ) *Assumes unchanging population for year to year

TemperatureDays needed for Maturation of Malaria Parasite 68º26 days 77º13 days 75.7ºX??? = -- cross-multiply.50 X X = 5.5%, so for every degree, there’s a 5.5% reduction in maturation time 75.7ºF - 68ºF = + 7.7º 7.7 º (0.055) =.4235  42.45% reduction in maturation time for 7.7 º increase in temperature 26 days(0.4235) =  11 day decrease 26 days – 11 days = 15 days! At 75.7 º F the length of time for parasite maturation is only 15 days! At 79.5 º F it only takes 10 days for the parasite to mature! ** these calculations assume a linear relationship between time for maturation and temperature, which might not be the case.

PlaNYC for the Future

On Earth Day 2007, Mayor Bloomberg introduced PlaNYC, a proposal that strives for environmental sustainability through reducing carbon emissions, creating more green spaces, and reworking the public transportation system.

Carbon Emissions by Sector Energy consumption is not only a problem in New York City, it is also responsible for 40% of the Global Carbon Emissions.

Fossil Energy is a GOAL! There are zero emissions, carbon storage and interconvertibility. By continually developing this large scale option, we could solve the problem of Global Warming.

As PlaNYC does outline cleaner power plants, it is important for this sector to be “cleaned up” first because it is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide. Proactive Solutions