Air Force Weather Agency Fly - Fight - Win AFWA Site Update WG-CSAB Spring 2010 John Zapotocny 7 April 2010 Approved for Public Release

Fly - Fight - Win Overview Operational Backup DMSP Spacecraft Status Developmental Initiatives WRF FOC Ensemble Modeling Dust Forecasting Space Weather Modeling

Fly - Fight - Win Operational Backup NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center 15 OWS provides primary short term back-up for SPC and AWC Numerous Tests One real world back-up for SPC in October 2009 Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) One 20-minute evacuation covered by SWPC in hour COOP Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified Warning Dissemination Backup capability delivered to AFWA/SWPC Beyond 48-hr COOP NCEP will provide alternate facility NLT FY11. AFWA will have access to this site if SWPC is disabled NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 2 real world backups/1 scheduled backup

Fly - Fight - Win DMSP Spacecraft Status Mar 2010 Slide removed in public release version

Fly - Fight - Win 5 WRF FOC WRF ARW—transitioned to full operation capability Near 1 for 1 replacement with MM5 45-, 15-, 5-km windows 57 Vertical Levels 10 mb model top New Kain-Fritsch Convection Scheme WRF Single Moment - 5 Microphysics Yonsei Univ PBL Coupled to Unified NOAH LSM 3DVAR data assimilation system

Fly - Fight - Win 6 WRF FOC Operational Theaters – Mar 2010 Slide removed in public release version

Fly - Fight - Win Global and mesoscale ensembles in development mode Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) based on GFS, NOGAPS, GEM ensemble members 2 cycles per day 240 hour forecast length, 6 hourly output Domain cut-outs based on warfighter feedback Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) based on WRF and SREF ensemble members WRF—2 cycles per day per theater, 4 domains, offset 6hrs SREF—4 cycles per day SREF and WRF merged twice per day for CONUS only First ever multi-center, multi-model mesoscale ensemble Contingency domain rapidly deployable—e.g., Haiti Ensemble Forecasting 7

Fly - Fight - Win 8 12 km, 48 hours 4 km, 30 hours 40 km grids 3 hourly output 12 km, 48 hours 40 km, 132 hours 12 km & 4 km grids hourly output AFWA Ensemble Domains

Fly - Fight - Win 9 Ensemble Webpage Available products for global (GEPS) and mesoscale (MEPS): Precipitation Amount Precipitation Type Snow Amount Cloud Cover Lightning Dust Lofting Severe Weather Blizzard Surface Wind Gust Visibility Wind Chill Heat Index Smoke Trapping Haboob Index Sig Tornado Parameter Realtime verification also available on webpage

Fly - Fight - Win 10 Strength of AFWA ensembles effort is cutting-edge exploitation of ensemble data Close collaboration with users to create algorithms to generate actionable information for forecasters Algorithms still being refined and evaluated by users and developers Ensemble Forecasting Military Application 10 Prototype Dust Joint Probability Product 12-h Forecast

Fly - Fight - Win 11 Ensemble Modeling Mesoscale Ensemble Predicts Large Scale Iraq Dust Event 12 km MEPS; 30-h forecast 4 km MEPS; 24-h forecast valid 6 hrs prior

Fly - Fight - Win 12 DTA-GFS Uses ½ degree GFS data 2 cycles out to 72 hours; 2 cycles out to 180 hours Affords unique strategic planning capability Dust concentration and Dust visibility products Africa, SWA, and East Asia; 1 deg Ginoux (like DTA-MM5) Operational – Jan 10 DTA-WRF Delivered version uses 15 km WRF data out 48 hours; SWA only In house version uses 45 km WRF data out to 72 hours; SWA, Africa, East Asia - prototype Both incorporate modified ¼ degree Ginoux database 15 km SWA operational Nov 09; 45 km products operational Aug 10 Dust Forecasting

Fly - Fight - Win 13 Early DTA verification study established relationship between concentration & visibility Later added as DTA product Subjective verification technique Area divided into grid Hit/no hit evaluated Verification ongoing – visibility restriction due to dust added to model metrics Probability of detecting (POD) a dust storm beyond 24 hours is 50-80% Selected RegionT+24 hrsT+36 hrsT+60 hrs Iraq70%66%60% NE Afghanistan/Pakistan80%65%50% SW Afghanistan65% Dust Forecasting DTA Verification

Fly - Fight - Win 14 Dust Forecasting DTA Visibility Product

Fly - Fight - Win 15 Click picture to toggle 15 Before soil moisture correction After soil moisture correction Dust Forecasting Soil Moisture Improvements

Fly - Fight - Win 16 Dust Forecasting 10 Mar 2009 Event - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia DTA visibility forecast cycle - roughly 48 hours prior to event

Fly - Fight - Win Dust Transport Application High resolution (0.25 degree and smaller) dust source region Development of a dynamic dust source region database Develop DTA-based dust ensemble products Collaboration w/ Navy (NRL & FNMOC) COAMPS dust model products Improve DTA to re-loft dust that has been deposited Initial work being accomplished by JHU-APL 17 TAKE-AWAYS: Improved dust source region database More accurate dust forecasts for the warfighters Better forecast timing for event termination in the future Dynamically updated joint dust source region database (planned) Dust Forecasting Way Ahead

Fly - Fight - Win GAIM – Full-Physics upgrade (GAIM-FP) due from USU in CY 12 Continue to assimilate new data and make enhancements Higher resolution, greater accuracy, and larger vertical domain SAA model delivered from JHU-APL to support classified ops Adding ensemble mode to solar wind/ionosphere model (SWMS) Partnerships to advance space weather support NASA – Helped CCMC refine iSWA to serve AFWA forecasters AFRL – SWFL will bring state-of-the-science models into the ops environment to speed transition NOAA – SWPT will transition new models to ops for SWPC and AFWA Upgrading HF comm support with advanced SWPC model 18 Space Weather Modeling

Fly - Fight - Win 19 Questions