S eptember 23, 2009 Jim Casey Industrial Forecast Luncheon
Industrial Development Current Market Trends - Houston New spec project pipeline is shut down There is reasonable tenant leasing activity, but commitments are slow There has not been major give-backs of space Generally, the markets are declining slightly, but pretty stable Need to see job growth to generate meaningful absorption
Values have declined; but little volume to establish values Lenders terms have shifted significantly; they don’t want to make new loans right now Equity is waiting on sidelines for more clarity on values Effects of long term debt roll-overs yet to come REIT’s are recovering, raising equity Capital Markets
Northwest Largest and most diverse Oilfield services, computer industry, furniture, general goods Modest amount of big new space Sub Market is in balance Houston Submarkets vary significantly
Southwest Fort Bend County is one of the fastest growing counties in the country Electronics, engineering, oilfield services Several new projects delivered in 2008 / 2009 Proximity and access to residential areas is key
East Most forward looking submarket Petrochemical commodities, container traffic Big projects delivered; need to see new major increases in are housing to absorb the space Long-term factors should promote growth, but near-term is going to be difficult
North Proximity to IAH is key Freight forwarding, oilfield services Export and import activities New international cargo routes developing
Summary Houston industrial market is trending down, but the slope is shallow Need to watch job losses;….. will there be job gains in 2010? New construction pipeline has slowed to a trickle Houston should out-perform most of the country long-term