Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects.

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Presentation transcript:

Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) Thanks to the National Park Service for funding Effects of Climate, Emissions and Land Cover Changes on Air Quality in the U.S. National Parks

Maria Val Martin (CSU) and Colette L. Heald (MIT) J-F Lamarque, S. Tilmes and L. Emmons (NCAR) About 50% of forests will be exposed to damaging O 3 by 2100; and 20% will exceed critical loads from S and N deposition by 2050 [FAO, 2007]

NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM 1.1_alpha12b) Coupler CAM-Chem 1.9x2.5 spatial resolution 26 vertical levels to ~3 hPa Land Model (CLM 4) IPCC scenarios and derived emissions (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) 2000 and 2050 GHGs O 3 and PM Precursors Prescribed sea-ice and ocean data (e.g., SST and sea-ice fraction) Land cover/use data (e.g., LAI, PFTs, etc)

Projections of global AQ-relevant emissions Similar GHGs projections, except CH 4 The RCP scenarios project large decreases for all emissions, except NH 3 and CH 4 in RCP 8.5 Emissions (Tg Species/year) Main GHGs 2050

Projections of land cover/land use changes RCP 4.5RCP 8.5 % Trees % Crops LAI

Fine Dust and Seasalt were adjusted to match IMPROVE observations Dust SeaSalt Emissions reduced by a factor of 2 and used an improved soil erodibility map Emissions reduced by a factor of 10

Effects on changes in climate alone ↑ 3 o C Annual Average in RCP RCP Precipitation Temperature

Effects of overall change on ozone Summer Daily Max 8-hr Avg Surface O RCP RCP 4.5 ↓4 ppb ~↓ 10 ppb ↑2 ppb RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 ∆Total =

RCP4.5 projects an important O 3 reduction from decreased anthropogenic emissions RCP4.5 ∆Climate∆Land Cover/Use ∆Anthro Emissions Important decrease in NO x emissions

In RCP8.5, climate and land cover changes offset benefits from emission reductions RCP8.5 ∆Climate ∆ Land Cover/Use ∆Anthro Emissions

Both RCPs project a decrease in PM2.5 Annual Average PM RCP RCP 4.5 RCP 4.5 RCP8.5

Change in PM2.5 due mainly to SO 4 and NH 4 NO 3 emission reduction Changes in Chemical Speciation East US West US

What is next… Rocky Mountain NP affected by Haze Study the effect of nitrogen deposition. Perform high resolution (0.5x0.5) simulations, and analyze the effect of spatial resolution on the results. Focus on the air quality over the US National Parks