AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway.

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Presentation transcript:

AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 How will the Northeast Atlantic and its living resources respond to global climate change? Nordic Seas Greenland Iceland Norway Faroes Scot- land Northeast Atlantic Better predictions for better adaptation Bogi Hansen, Faroe Marine Research Institute

The Earth Global climate change Warming = Energy in – Energy out Regional climate change Windsand currentsmove energy What if they change ?

NOAA Mean sea surface temperature 5ºC 60º 5ºC

Iceland Scot- land Nordic Seas Arctic Ocean Faroes Cooling Greenland North Atlantic Greenland-Scotland Ridge Overflow

Cold water from the Arctic sinks and spreads throughout the World Ocean 500 – 1000 years Labrador Sea The ”Great Conveyor Belt” (MOC, THC) Antarctic Cooling Increasing salinity Freshwater IPCC-2007: it is very likely that the North Atlantic MOC will slow down during the 21st century

Measurements

AGU, 2003 image:AGU 2003 Volume transport of Atlantic inflow Inflowing Atlantic water (millions m 3 /second) No significant trend Iceland-Faroe inflow since 1992 Greenland-Iceland inflow since 1994 Faroe-Shetland inflow since 1992

Labrador Sea convection Overflow and Atlantic inflow did probably NOT weaken But, Labrador Sea convection has been weak since mid-1990s

Projected surface warming for A2 scenario (IPCC 2007) 2 – 3 ºC warming ºC

Warming at m depth according to AR4 climate models (Yin et al., 2011) Average of 19 climate models Cooling One model > 3°C warming Another model > 2°C warming “No” change MOC model uncertainty remains high in CMIP5 climate models

With warming, fish stocks tend to move towards colder areas But, changing currents may be more important Whither the fish ?

Artist:Glynn Gorick The marine ecosystem King Cod

What will happen to King Cod ? Temperature and currents Phytoplankton Air temperature RainWind Light Clouds

Ocean acidification CO 2 H 2 CO 3 HCO 3 + H + - CO 3 + 2H + -- H + + CO 3 HCO

The living conditions for fish in the Northeast Atlantic will, no doubt, change dramatically But, HOW ?