2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 1 Earthquake Case Discussion Response to Unexpected NSF Workshop Feb 27-Mar

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 2 Issues l Lessons from earthquakes l Response issues l Modalities of research l Research bottlenecks

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 3 Lessons from Earthquakes (and other natural disasters) l Some predictable elements, many unexpected l Significant experience l Physical Variables –Areal extent –Duration –Size and impact l Other variables –Jurisdictions –Organizations –Available technologies –Asset and sector exposures

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 4 Response discussion l Communication (design and architecture) network design, control, interfaces, multi-modality l Vertical and horizontal inter-organizational coordination –Information integration across authorities identified as major CS problem l Designed-in flexibility : object-oriented planning, breadboard approach l Data needs l Game-playing for modeling response system l Simulation and training for unexpected events

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 5 Response discussion (cont.) l Information issues –Analysis –Acquisition/collection –Qc and validation, calibration –Active vs passive interactions –Information for coordination: incorporation of response activities into information stream –Security, access, channels, information communities –Integrating before event –Situational alertness and interactions with monitoring webs

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 6 Response Research needs: l Planning architectures –Flexibility –Robustness –Modularity –Extensibility –interoperability –Scaling –Timeliness l Minimize trauma and damage (health and infrastructure) l Public pressure (politics) l Return to normalcy –Practical implementation –User-mediated interaction

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 7 Response Research needs (cont.) l Decision architectures (in real time, collaborative) –fundamental models –Autonomous agent decision vs. human input –Prioritizing response actions –Risk modeling under unfolding conditions –Choice modeling (public and private) –Triage response

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 8 Modeling l A priori assessments of vulnerability l Nature and severity of unexpected event (within the envelope) - situational assessment l Scenarios (outside the envelope) l Tracking the trajectory of event –Cascading consequences

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 9 Modeling (cont.) l Understanding event timelines l Understanding spatial extent and variability l Understanding response time constraints l State of modeling unsatisfactory –Loss-estimation –Calibration –Modeling and data issues –Postdiction assessment

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 10 Information issues l Database integration l Passive and active interaction l Archived and RT data l Resources, responses, techniques l Security

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 11 Information issues (cont.) l Situational matching l Practitioner matching l Time-variant, real-time environment l Encylopaedic vs. critical need (agent-based selection) l Alerts, identification of significant input

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 12 Research Modalities l More active interaction with practitioners l Partnerships with regional and local governments l Structure such as CALL (Army Center for Lessons Learned) l Case histories, rapid response, integration of case studies into response mechanisms, indexing of unexpected events l Evaluation

2/28/02 NSF - Responding to the Unexpected 13 Research bottlenecks l Inter-organizational coordination –Fed/state/local interactions –Mission agency interactions l Data security dilemmas –Policy vacuum –CS research opportunity