An analysis of Time On Market and Advertised to Sale Price Differences OVER TIME European Real Estate Society Conference Milano, Italy, June 2010 Peter Rossini*, Valerie Kupke, and Paul Kershaw University of South Australia & Stanley McGreal University of Ulster & University of South Australia

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 2 Introduction TOM measure of the buoyancy of the REmarket. This preliminary study uses data from 24 quarters from 2003 to ,176 observations - over 55% of all market transactions of detached residential properties Data combines transaction records with details of property marketing data from RPData. Use TOM and first to last advertised price and across the different locations and for each property type.

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 3 Changing TOM Distributions

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 4 Median TOM over time

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 5 Median TOM & % Change Price

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 6 TOM by Year and Region

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 7 TOM by Region Median TOM – Houses 2003 Median TOM – Houses

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 8 TOM by Year and # Main Rooms

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 9 Hazard Model Year, Regions, Rooms, Land Area

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 10 Hazard Model Year, Regions, Rooms, Land Area

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 11 Using Hazard Models to develop an index Two methods used to estimate this index. 1 - single Cox regression (hazard model) is estimated - dummy variables or each quarter with region, main rooms and land area 2 - series of Cox regressions with two quarters of data and one dummy to indicate the change with region, main rooms and land area. Index created from the odds-ratios – from the exponents of the coefficients.

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 12 TOM index based on median and hazard model results

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 13 Plot of hazard model odds/ratios over time

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 14 Plot of hazard model odds/ratios over time

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 15 First to Last Advertised price over time

Time on Market Indicators for Adelaide, South Australia Slide 16 First Advertised to actual sale price over time