Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a Proposed High-Impact Weather Forecasting Paradigm.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Report of the Q2 Short Range QPF Discussion Group Jon Ahlquist Curtis Marshall John McGinley - lead Dan Petersen D. J. Seo Jean Vieux.
Advertisements

Storm Prediction Center Highlights NCEP Production Suite Review December 3, 2013 Steven Weiss, Israel Jirak, Chris Melick, Andy Dean, Patrick Marsh, and.
Calibration of GOES-R ABI cloud products and TRMM/GPM observations to ground-based radar rainfall estimates for the MRMS system – Status and future plans.
“A LPB demonstration project” Celeste Saulo CIMA and Dept. of Atmos. and Ocean Sciences University of Buenos Aires Argentina Christopher Cunningham Center.
SPC Potential Products and Services and Attributes of Operational Supporting NWP Probabilistic Outlooks of Tornado, Severe Hail, and Severe Wind.
Unisys Weather Information Services Presentation for NWS Partners Meeting Partner Perspective June 2010 Ron Guy, Director Unisys Weather
The 2014 Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) HWT-Hydro Testbed Experiment
Travis Smith NSSL / OU / CIMMS The Hazardous Weather Testbed / Experimental Warning Program.
Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): A Proposed Next-Generation Hazardous Watch/Warning Paradigm Lans P. Rothfusz Acting Deputy Director.
Louisville, KY August 4, 2009 Flash Flood Frank Pereira NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.
Improving Excessive Rainfall Forecasts at HPC by using the “Neighborhood - Spatial Density“ Approach to High Res Models Michael Eckert, David Novak, and.
NOAA’s National Weather Service 2009 President’s Budget Rollout Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator & Director, National Weather Service National Weather.
Introduction to The Hazardous Weather Testbed Norman, Oklahoma.
Travis Smith (OU/CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center
June 23, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center 1 NOAA / CBRFC Water forecasts and data in support of western water management.
Evaluation of Potential Performance Measures for the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Gary A. Wick NOAA Environmental Technology Laboratory On Rotational.
Outcomes from the 2011 and 2012 Weather Ready Nation Workshops.
The National Severe Storms Laboratory Jeff Kimpel, Director NSSL NOAA Science Advisory Board Norman, Oklahoma November 5, 2002.
V. Chandrasekar (CSU), Mike Daniels (NCAR), Sara Graves (UAH), Branko Kerkez (Michigan), Frank Vernon (USCD) Integrating Real-time Data into the EarthCube.
Warn on Forecast Briefing September 2014 Warn on Forecast Brief for NCEP planning NSSL and GSD September 2014.
HEMS-related Aviation Weather R&D Steve Abelman Dec 18, 2013.
The 2014 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment Faye E. Barthold 1,2, Thomas E. Workoff 1,3, Wallace A. Hogsett 1*, J.J. Gourley 4, and David R. Novak.
1 FY10-14 Planning. 2 Vision for 2015 NOAA is closer to its customers and better able to respond to severe events. NOAA information is routinely incorporated.
Using Partnerships to Meet NOAA’s Needs for its Next Generation Storm Surge System NOS/OCS/CSDL J. Feyen F. Aikman M. Erickson NWS/NCEP/EMC H. Tolman NWS/OST/MDL.
GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Dr. Russell S. Schneider Chief, Science Support Branch NWS Storm Prediction Center.
NOAA’s National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database: Status Update LeRoy Spayd Chief, Meteorological Services Division Unidata Policy Committee.
1 10/17/2015 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002 Paul Hirschberg Office of Science & Technology Paul Hirschberg Office.
NWS Social Science Activities David Caldwell, Director NWS Office of Climate, Weather and Water & Jennifer M. Sprague NWS Social Science Focal Point OFCM.
National Weather Service & General Aviation EAA AirVenture Oshkosh Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson, USAF (Ret.) NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services.
Collaborating on the Development of Warn-On-Forecast Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb. 18, 2010 Mike Foster / David Andra WFO Norman OK Feb.
Overview of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Precipitation/Flash Flood Products/Services Michael Eckert
HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment: History and Success Dr. Adam Clark February 25, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.
Office of Coast Survey Using Partnerships to Improve NOAA’s Storm Surge Products and Forecasts Jesse C. Feyen Storm Surge Roadmap Portfolio Manager National.
3 rd Annual WRF Users Workshop Promote closer ties between research and operations Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system   Design.
1 Development of a convection- resolving CONUS ensemble system (aka: Warn on Forecast) Presented By: Lou Wicker (NSSL) Contributors Geoff DiMego (NCEP)
Mesoscale Probability Forecast Capability: A National Imperative Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science and Technology National Weather Service, NOAA.
NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast Project Dr. Lou Wicker February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.
111/27/2015 User Education & Training End-to-End Cycle for NOAA's Satellite Program Anthony Mostek NOAA - NWS – OCWWS - Training Division Anthony Mostek.
SPC Ensemble Applications: Current Status, Recent Developments, and Future Plans David Bright Storm Prediction Center Science Support Branch Norman, OK.
Refinement and Evaluation of Automated High-Resolution Ensemble-Based Hazard Detection Guidance Tools for Transition to NWS Operations Kick off JNTP project.
APPLICATION OF NUMERICAL MODELS IN THE FORECAST PROCESS - FROM NATIONAL CENTERS TO THE LOCAL WFO David W. Reynolds National Weather Service WFO San Francisco.
GEO - Weather Ocean Water Proposed Weather SBA and cross-linking work packages.
Integrated Hazard Information Services Workshop October Boulder, Co.
National Weather Service Water Science and Services John J. Kelly, Jr. Director, National Weather Service NOAA Science Advisory Board November 6, 2001.
NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL) Objectives – Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather –
TimeDays Outlooks Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM) and Lans Rothfusz FACETs: Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Space Regional State.
NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) Jin Huang NOAA Office of Global Programs November.
INFORMATION EXTRACTION AND VERIFICATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION FOR SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING Israel Jirak, NOAA/Storm Prediction Center Chris.
1 Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster.
Presented to: By: Date: Federal Aviation Administration NextGen Network Enabled Weather Capability Evaluations Demonstration and Prototyping Information.
Test and Evaluation of Rapid Post-Processing and Information Extraction From Large Convection Allowing Ensembles Applied to 0-3hr Tornado Outlooks James.
Training Framework for Satellite User Readiness in NOAA AMS th Conference on Satellite Meteorology & Oceanography LeRoy Spayd & Anthony Mostek.
Travis Smith Hazardous Weather Forecasts & Warnings Nowcasting Applications.
The relationship between Science and DSS in the NWS – issues and discussion Mike Evans WFO Binghamton, NY.
4th IPWG Workshop Chinese Meteorological Agency, Beijing, China, October, 2008 MAINSTREAMING THE OPERATIONAL USE OF SATELLITE PRECIPITATION DATA.
Probabilistic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events for the U.S. Hazards Assessment Kenneth Pelman 32 nd Climate Diagnostics Workshop Tallahassee,
Travis Smith, Jidong Gao, Kristin Calhoun, Darrel Kingfield, Chenghao Fu, David Stensrud, Greg Stumpf & a cast of dozens NSSL / CIMMS Warn-on-Forecast.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview.
1 Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and Technology NOAA National.
April 2002 MDL Collaboration Workshop – 29 Sept Integrated Hazards Information Services 1 Integrated Hazard Information Services Tom LeFebvre Global.
Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Project Future Directions.
National Severe Weather Services Dr. Russell Schneider NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center 20 June 2007 opportunities, enhancements & plans Briefing for NWS.
Focus areas of the NWS Missouri/Souris River Floods of May-August 2011 Service Assessment – Per the NOAA and NWS Strategic Plans, gather stakeholder input.
HWT Experimental Warning Program: History & Successes Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting Component of the 2011 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment David Novak 1, Faye Barthold 1,2, Mike.
Case Study: March 1, 2007 The WxIDS approach to predicting areas of high probability for severe weather incorporates various meteorological variables (e.g.
11 Short-Range QPF for Flash Flood Prediction and Small Basin Forecasts Prediction Forecasts David Kitzmiller, Yu Zhang, Wanru Wu, Shaorong Wu, Feng Ding.
Travis Smith U. Of Oklahoma & National Severe Storms Laboratory Severe Convection and Climate Workshop 14 Mar 2013 The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely.
Hydrometeorological Predication Center
Science of Rainstorms with applications to Flood Forecasting
Presentation transcript:

Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs): Overview, Plans and Early Impressions of a Proposed High-Impact Weather Forecasting Paradigm Lans P. Rothfusz, Travis M. Smith, Christopher Karstens, Greg Stumpf, Russell Schneider, and David Novak NWA Conference 2015

FACETs and NWA Conferences 2013 – FACETs, the idea – FACETs, the plan (yawn) – FACETs, beginning execution of the plan. (Here we go!) 2

FACETs Is... A proposed reinvention of NOAA’s current teletype-era, deterministic (binary), product- centric paradigm. Borne out of NSSL/CIMMS research and Weather Ready Nation activities. Focused on entire forecast/warning process.

FACETs Is... A continuous stream of calibrated, high-res, probabilistic hazard information (PHI) extending from days to within minutes of event - for all Environmental Threats. 4 Adapted from Lazrus (NCAR) Time Space Information Continuum

The PHI Continuum Example of the envisioned PHI continuum spanning the temporal/spatial scales from national centers to local offices. 5

The “delivery mechanism” for emerging convective class models and tools - and their resulting probabilistic guidance (e.g., Warn on Forecast). FACETs Is... Rotation track prediction Valid: UTC) Probability ~40 min lead time? Tornado starts: 2143 UTC Tornado starts: 2143 UTC

Multimedia, multi-point enabling. FACETs Is…

FACETs Is... Optimized for user-specific decision-making through comprehensive integration of social/behavioral/economic sciences. A framework to focus R&D activities. 8

There is a Plan... June 2014 Workshop: How do we get from current system to FACETs? 46 distinct projects identified! 16 physical science 14 software development 23 social/behavioral/economic science Science and Strategic Implementation Plan (SSIP) created. 9

“Probability of What?” Project USWRP 3-year funding. 11 multi-disciplinary sub-projects. Addresses early phases of the FACETs SSIP. Conveyance of uncertainty through calibrated, model- derived, PHI for severe convective phenomena, including flash flooding. Goals Accelerate transition of PHI to ops (SPC and WPC) by The NOAA-NWS Storm Prediction Center: Future Plans and Challenges in Pursuit of a Weather Ready Nation (Schneider et al.) – Plenary IV Set stage for PHI in NWS local offices & America’s Weather Industry partners. 10

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 11 A1: Event Definition Across a Wide Range of Scales (NSSL, SPC, WPC) Definition of “the event” consistently across space and time scales (convective outlook scale down to the proposed warning scales associated with Warn-on- Forecast).

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 12 A2: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for severe weather hazards (SPC) Develop/Refine calibrated guidance for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds during the Day 1 period from the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system & the SPC Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO).

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 13 A3: Calibrated probabilistic guidance for flash flood hazards (WPC) WPC will redefine the Extended Rainfall Outlook as the (calibrated) probability of flash flooding within 40 km of a point. Early exploration of Hazard Services use for heavy rainfall will also be pursued.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 14 A4: High-resolution guidance from MYRORSS (CIMMS, NSSL) Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed Storms (MYRORSS): A 15+ year reanalysis of WSR-88D and environment data resulting in distributions of storm behavior probabilities.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 15 B1: PHI prototype tool rapid-prototyping improvements (CIMMS, NSSL) Rapid prototyping of forecaster interface for generating PHI and sharing hazard grids based on interrogation of observations and numerical model output.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 16 B2: Pro-FLASH (NSSL, CIMMS) A hydrologic component for PHI related to flash floods and floods, based on the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 17 B3: PHI in Hazard Services (GSD, NSSL, CIMMS) The AWIPS-II Hazard Services built to create PHI for severe convective phenomena and lay the groundwork for probabilistic flash flood guidance (using pro-FLASH).

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 18 B4: Understanding forecaster’s formulation of PHI (U. Akron, NSSL, CIMMS) Human factors researchers identify areas of PHI Prototype Tool improvement.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 19 B5: Verification of high-resolution probabilistic severe weather guidance (MDL, GSD) A gridded warning verification system will be designed and tested to provide more meaningful measures of the goodness of severe weather warnings.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 20 C1: Baseline of Public Responsiveness to Uncertainty in Forecasts (OU/CRCM, NSSL) Establishment of an independent, scientifically-defensible “baseline” (benchmark) measure of public responsiveness to NWS warnings, watches, and advisories under the current paradigm. A system for regular (social science) evaluations thereafter.

PHI Forecaster Interface, Testing & Verification PHI Guidance Info A1 Event Definition A2 Calibrated PHI for Severe Wx (SPC) A3 Calibrated PHI for Floods (WPC) A4 MYRORSS B1 PHI Prototype Web Tool B2 Pro-FLASH B3 Hazard Services B5 PHI Verification B4 Forecaster Use of PHI End Users C1 Baseline of User Responsiveness to Uncertainty C2 User Interpretation of and Response to PHI “Probability of What?” Project 21 C2: User’s Interpretation, Decision Making, and Response to PHI Presentation Formats (U. Akron, CIMMS, NSSL) Human factors research to understand human interpretation of and response to PHI in guiding their weather decision making.

FACETs-Related Presentations Building a Database of Flash Flood Observations Using Twitter (Smith et al.) – Poster AP-58 Emergency Manager Severe Weather Information Needs and Use of Experimental Warning Information (LaDue et al.) – Concurrent II: Social Science Decision-Making with Automated Probabilistic Guidance in the 2015 Hazardous Weather Testbed Probabilistic Hazard Information Experiment (Karstens et al.) - Plenary III New Tools for Flash Flood Forecasting in the National Weather Service (Gourley et al.) – Plenary VII Towards Hazard Services Recommenders for Flash Flood Forecasting (Clark et al.) – Poster BP-17. Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimates with Ground-based Radar Networks (Kirstetter et al.) – Poster CP-27. New Verification Techniques for FACETs: What Do False Alarm Area and Lead Time Really Mean in the Realm of Probabilistic Hazard Information? (Stumpf et al.) - Poster CP-52 Probabilistic Hazard Information Processing System (PHIPS): Rapid Generation and Blending of Probabilistic Forecasts for Severe Convective Hazards (Karstens et al.) - Poster CP-24 22

Summary FACETs: An over-arching reinvention of NOAA’s hazardous weather forecasting paradigm has begun. 3-yr R&D Project for R2O (to SPC and WPC) underway. 11 multi-disciplinary projects. 23