Problem Solving Escalator Video

Decisions!! How many bad decisions have you made lately?

Maxine Clark founder of Build a Bear Attributes her success to: Mrs. Grace, her elementary teacher who gave out a red pencil prize to the student who made the most mistake each week. She didn’t want the fear of being wrong to keep us from trying. No prize for making the same mistake twice though.

Decision making errors 1.Overconfidence Bias 1996 expedition to the top of Everest were overconfident, did not follow the rule of reaching the top by 2:00 PM or you turn around. The 5 who reached the top at 4:00 died. Leaders said it worked 39 times before.

Decision making errors 2. Sunk Cost Bias 1996 expedition to the top of Everest (29,000 feet) had invested 6 weeks of preparation to acclimatize and 2 weeks climbing. The cost was $65,000 each. Because of this, they had become overly committed – violating the “Turn around” rule.

Decision making errors 3. Cognitive Bias When you place too much emphasis on recent event. The leaders of the expedition to the top of Everest had experienced several seasons of good weather. A raging blizzard came in that day as they were climbing down in the dark.

Can you undo a decision? You have gone to a bad movie You chose to stay up late You cheated on a test You told someone something that was told to you in confidence You paid too much for a pair of jeans You saved your entire paycheck with no money leftover for gas

Do I follow my heart or my head?

Do I follow my intuition? Nurses and Doctors have a sense that something isn’t right, but no vital sign abnormalities – cardiac arrest happens. A fireman sees a simple kitchen fire, but has a sense that his men should leave – the floor collapses. Intuition is about pattern recognition and pattern matching based on out past experience

Is there a right and wrong answer to most decisions? RIGHT?? WRONG??

OPPORTUNITY COSTS Do the rewards outweigh the benefits?

OPPORTUNITY COSTS Is a choice free, or does it have a cost? Each choice has alternatives. The choice is what your willing to give up. Are you as well off as your next best alternative?

Is the longest list best? College to go to Who to marry

Have I let my imagination go wild?

Brainstorming ground rules Encourage wild ideas Encourage building on other ideas Defer judgment IDEO’s brainstorming methods – creating a shopping cart

Should I let others help me? Audience was correct 91% of the time

Group Think Pressure for conformity to any members whoexpress a dissenting view.Certain individuals filter out information themight challenge the wisdom within the group.

Are there unintended consequences to others? ChoiceConsequences?

10 – 10 – 10 RULE Consider the consequences of your decision in – 10 minutes – 10 months – 10 years

10 – 10 – 10 RULE Start with a question Collect information – Ask friends & family for guidance Consider your inner most values – Will this decision help me create a live of my own making?

Should you always choose the option of what you do best?

Decision Making Process

Class Activity Make to tallest, free standing tower With newspaper and masking tape only Groups of minutes to plan 10 minutes to construct

Paper Tower Did it help to plan and organize the group? Did plans change as you worked? Did some take over, some do less than others? Was it helpful to have others ideas?