Barriers to reasoning rationally Variables that interfere with quality thinking

Objectives The Student will List (# 6) the Barriers to Rational reasoning or “ good thinking “ The student will describe COGNITIVE DISSONENCE summarize three variables that reduce dissonance

Barriers to rational reasoning Exaggerating the improbable Avoiding loss Biases due to mental set The confirmation bias The hindsight bias The need for cognitive consistency Overcoming our cognitive biases chapter 7

Exaggerating the improbable Availability heuristic The tendency to judge the probability of an event by how easy it is to think of examples. chapter 7

What people use in judging probabilities Enter lotteries (See Winner) or buy disaster insurance ( see Devastation) #1.Availability heuristic- how easy it is to think of examples or instances of it Usually hand in hand with affect= catastrophes tragic events Such as 9/11, Kennedy assassination

#1 st barrier to reason

Availability heuristic

Avoiding loss People try to minimize risks and losses when making decisions. chapter 7

#2 Avoiding a loss People choose 10% of a winning ticket more than a 90% loosing ticket Condom 95% effective or 5% Aids: which one more effective? People choose 95% Health Program : worded differently die or saved THUS changed plan people choose Most people choose first program Say Saved in first one …Die in second one

The nine-dot problem Connect all 9 dots. Use only 4 lines. Do not lift your pencil from the page after you begin drawing. chapter 7

# 3 Mental set Cut up and tape Roll on globe Outside the box Must people think inside the box

The fairness bias The Ultimatum Game: Your partner gets $10 and must decide how much to share with you. You can accept or reject the offer, but if you reject it, neither of you gets any money. It is rational to accept any offer: you always end up with more money if you accept than if you reject the offer. In industrial societies, offers of 50% are typical. Offers below 20–30% are commonly rejected. chapter 7

fairness bias/ part of mental set Used in negotiations If feel insulted thus could refuse offer

The hindsight bias The tendency to overestimate one’s ability to have predicted an event once the outcome is known. The “I knew it all along” phenomenon chapter 7

4 th Obstacle in thinking Hindsight Bias- I knew it all along Monday Morning quarterback- You should have called this play I knew the boyfriend/girlfriend was bad news Medical judgments: I knew that mole was cancerous Try to make sense of past, focus on one outcome the one that occurred Not focused on others because waste of time

Judging and Making Decisions # 5 Confirmation Bias- Only show info or data supporting your point. Finding fault with evidence or arguments that point in a different direction “Doctors don’t know nothing’” My father in law Politicians only show economic growth never disasters. President 1,000s of examples. Show job growth not loss Police and a suspect… your claim of innocence is what guilty guys do

Need for cognitive consistency Cognitive dissonance A state of tension produced when a person holds two contradictory cognitions or when a person’s belief is inconsistent with his/her behavior chapter 7

Conditions which may reduce dissonance When you need to justify a choice or decision you freely made When you need to justify behavior that conflicts with your view of yourself When you need to justify the effort put into a decision or choice chapter 7

Justification of effort The tendency of people to increase their liking for something they have worked hard for or suffered to attain A common form of dissonance reduction chapter 7

Summary List the six barriers to rational thinking Give examples of Reducing cognitive dissonance for example justification of effort