Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Response - A View From Georgia - David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The University of Georgia David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist and Associate Professor Engineering and Atmospheric Sciences College of Agricultural & Environmental Sciences The University of Georgia

Facts About Georgia ◊In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million ◊In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million ◊In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million ◊In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million ◊Largest state east of the Mississippi River ◊8th largest state in population ◊In 1960 Atlanta’s population: 1 million ◊In 1960 Georgia’s population: 4.3 million ◊In 2008 Atlanta’s population: 4.5 million ◊In 2008 Georgia’s population: 8.5+ million ◊Largest state east of the Mississippi River ◊8th largest state in population

Facts About Georgia ◊Northern quarter is southern highlands ◊Southern half is the coastal plain ◊Most of the population lives in the piedmont ◊The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown) ◊Northern quarter is southern highlands ◊Southern half is the coastal plain ◊Most of the population lives in the piedmont ◊The fall line bisects the state (Montgomery, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond and Georgetown)

Georgia Water Facts ◊North of the fall line - primarily surface water Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles. ◊South of the fall line - primarily ground water ◊1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia ◊North of the fall line - primarily surface water Drainage basin for Lake Lanier 1040 sq. miles. ◊South of the fall line - primarily ground water ◊1.5 million acres under irrigation, primarily in southwest Georgia

Georgia Climate Facts ◊Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year More than 80 inches in the mountains 45 inches interior southeast ◊Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches ◊Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting ◊Rule of Thumb: 50 inches of rain per year More than 80 inches in the mountains 45 inches interior southeast ◊Rain is more or less evenly distributed over the year: March 5 inches and October 3.5 inches ◊Evapotranspiration is extremely important in drought forecasting

GEORGIA DROUGHT MANAGEMENT PLAN 1)DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS 2)AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS 3)PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES 4)DROUGHT RESPONSES 5)DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS 6)CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP Approved: March 26, )DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS 2)AGENCIES and ORGANIZATIONS 3)PRE-DROUGHT STRATEGIES 4)DROUGHT RESPONSES 5)DROUGHT INDICATORS and TRIGGERS 6)CLIMATE DIVISIONS MAP Approved: March 26, 2003

Section 1) DROUGHT DECLARATION PROCESS The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses: 1A): The State Climatologist ’ s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities … The following is the process for declaring drought conditions and responses: 1A): The State Climatologist ’ s office and EPD will routinely monitor and evaluate stream flows, lake levels, precipitation, groundwater levels, and other climatic indicators that are supplied by several cooperating entities …

Precipitation ◊30 days ◊90 days ◊6 months ◊12 months ◊Water Year ◊24 months ◊36 months ◊30 days ◊90 days ◊6 months ◊12 months ◊Water Year ◊24 months ◊36 months

30 Day Precipitation

90 Day Precipitation

6 Month Precipitation

12 Month Precipitation

Water Year Precipitation

24 Month Precipitation

36 Month Precipitation

Soil Moisture

“Top” Soil Moisture (top 1 meter)

“Deep” Soil Moisture (2 meters)

Stream Flows

Lake Russell GA/SC

Clarks Hill Lake GA/SC

Lake Hartwell GA/SC

Lake Lanier GA

Groundwater

Drought Level Guidance CD Drought Indicators 1SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Allatoona Chattooga River at Summerville 2SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega CD Drought Indicators 1SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Allatoona Chattooga River at Summerville 2SPI-3, SPI-6, SPI-12 Lake Lanier, Lake Allatoona Etowah River at Canton Chestatee River near Dahlonega

Georgia Drought Response Levels ◊Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight. ◊Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m. ◊Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m. ◊Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban ◊Level One: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m - and - 4 p.m. to 12 midnight. ◊Level Two: Water on scheduled days - 12 midnight to 10 a.m. ◊Level Three: Water on scheduled weekend day - 12 midnight to 10 a.m. ◊Level Four: Complete outdoor water use ban

Determining Drought Level Response ◊Look at climatological data ◊Look at triggers guidance ◊Discussion ◊Look at climatological data ◊Look at triggers guidance ◊Discussion

Comments about Discussion ◊Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought ◊Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought. ◊Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels ◊Drought impacts are cumulative - data may not capture the essence of the drought ◊Drought varies over time and space - part of the state may be in short-term drought while other parts are in long-term - the importance various indicators will vary from drought to drought and within a drought. ◊Seasonal components are important as well antecedent conditions such as soil moisture, stream flows, reservoir levels

Determining when to relax restrictions ◊Look at climatological data ◊Look at trigger guidance ◊Look at climate outlooks ◊Discussion ◊Look at climatological data ◊Look at trigger guidance ◊Look at climate outlooks ◊Discussion

Drought Outlooks ◊CPC Seasonal Outlooks ◊IRI 3-month Outlooks ◊NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks ◊Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007 ◊CPC Seasonal Outlooks ◊IRI 3-month Outlooks ◊NOAA’s and IRI’s ENSO Outlooks ◊Southeast Climate Consortium’s Outlooks - State Climatologists of AL, FL, GA and NC - La Nina Watch issued in September 2007

Additional Information ◊State Drought Page: ◊UGA Automated Weather Stations: ◊Southeast Climate Consortium: ◊State Drought Page: ◊UGA Automated Weather Stations: ◊Southeast Climate Consortium: