FLOODING FROM THE RED RIVER THREATENS THE FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA AREA AGAIN RECORD- TO NEAR-RECORD FLOOD LEVELS THREE YEARS IN A ROW SUNDAY, APRIL 9, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK FLOOD DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION/MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION POLICY OPTIONS

FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA: 2011 National Guards walk the levee protecting Fargo from the rising Red River, which reached 39 feet on April 9 th, short of the 2009 record

RISK ASSESSMENT: FLOODING FROM RED RIVER: APRIL-MAY 2011 WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY WILL THE FLOODING OCCUR? HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE? WHAT IS AT RISK? VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS? WHEN, WHERE, AND WHY WILL THE FLOODING OCCUR? HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE? WHAT IS AT RISK? VULNERABILITIES? EXPECTED DAMAGE? EXPECTED SOCIO- ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF RISK CASE HISTORIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) REAL TIME WEATHER FORCASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., STREAM GAGUES) RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING) DATABASES MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS DRONE PLANES HAZMAT MANAGEMENT DATABASES MAPS: 100-YEAR AND 500-YEAR FLOODS FLOOD DISASTER SCENARIOS DRONE PLANES HAZMAT MANAGEMENT

NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH EVACUATION IS TYPICAL FLOODS HURRICANES TYPHOONS TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW BEMEFIT/COST FOR PROTECTING PROPERTY GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT OF HARM’S WAY

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011 Both Fargo and neighboring Moorhead, MN., with a combined population of nearly 200,000, now have permanent and temporary dikes and levees reaching to at least 41 feet.

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011 The cities placed more than a million sandbags in advance. National Guard members were assigned to patrol all the flood defenses, augmented by un- manned drones.

PREPARATION WAS DIFFERENT IN 2011 Fargo and Moorhead had reduced their vulnerability to floods by buying out homes in flood-prone areas, and purchasing miles of quick- install diking systems.

A BRIEF LOOK AT THE RECORD FLOODING OF 2009

LOOKING BACK The record flood of 2009 forced thousands to evacuate, inundated about 100 homes and caused an estimated $100 million in damage as the river crested at feet. In 2010, the river crested at feet, the sixth-highest crest on record

RECORD FLOODING THEN AND NOW WAS CAUSED BY RAPID MELT OF A HEAVY SNOW PACK MARCH 28-30, 2009