1 Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster Orientation Meeting Tuscon, AZ April 22, 2004

2 Overview Define NCEP Review Climate-Weather linkage Basis for a Hydromet Test Bed

3 Define NCEP

4 NCEP Mission Statement NCEP delivers national and global weather, climate, ocean and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to its NWS Partners and External User Communities. These products and services respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy, and support the nation’s environmental information database. Space Environment Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center

5*As of 10/1/04 *51 FTE Total FTE: 426* 131 Contractors/24 Visitors

6 NCEP’s Future is Built Upon: ?Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example ?Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns ?Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts ?Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts ?Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts ?Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations ?Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models ?“Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach ?Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events ?Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure ?Addressing uncertainty in forecasts – Ensemble modeling NEW ?Collaborative Forecasting ?Unified Model Infrastructure applied from the “Sun to the Sea”

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8 Climate – Weather Linkage

9 Key to seamless suite of NWS products Is based primarily on the water cycle! Climate and weather communities have an equal focus on QPF –NAME: focus on warm-season QPF forced by hemispheric to synoptic scale –USWRP/IHOP: focus on QPF, recognizes warm-season precipitation as key to improving QPF scores, focus on synoptic to mesoscale –THORPEX: in planning stage (WMO)

HPC QPF Verification 1-inch Threat Score

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12 HPC QPF verification Day 1, 1 inch, Jan-Dec 2003

13 Summer HPC QPF verification Day 1, 1 inch (June, July, Aug average score) Threat Score

14 Basis for Hydromet Test Bed

15 Basis for Hydromet Test Bed The challenge for linking climate/weather patterns is “hydrometeorological” in nature and are being addressed through model advancements –New “breakthrough” Climate Forecast System being introduced –WRF implementation/Eta Upgrades/Increase number of SREF members –Global Ensembles 4 per day with increased resolution All of these systems need systematic assessment of forecast skill The assessment needs: –Forecaster input –A QPF focus

16 Basis for Hydromet Test Bed (cont.) Whether the forecast scale is seasonal/hemispheric or short-term/national to local, addressing the science issues –Will involve study of physics/dynamics –Will base advanced modeling approaches on a combination of higher resolution and ensemble approaches –Will have to link the “physics” of land, hydrology, oceans and atmosphere within these models –Will depend on optimal use of global observations to initialize models and verify forecasts –Will depend on model-forecaster interactions

17 Hydromet Test Bed Goals Improve QPFs from short-term to seasonal Address the ‘optimal combination’ of modeling approaches from the high resolution to ensemble- based stochastic models Provide key “tools” to forecast community including training in the new ensemble world for a more rapid transition from the research to operational community Help address the key global observations and related data assimilation to improve QPF at all scales

18 Hydromet Test Bed Proposal NCEP is ideally suited to host test bed –Co-location of CPC and HPC –Expanding collaboration forecast procedure to include RFCs and WFOs (providing basis for a distributed test bed?) –Location of the International Training Desks Could accommodate scientist and forecasters from Mexico in a bilingual environment (already includes Central America) –Co-located with the EMC and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation –Committed to making this work for both the climate and weather communities

19 Current Status Proposal being considered by USWRP & HPC/CPC Resources being reviewed within NCEP to see what can be “reallocated” Effort will commence to provide a management structure if both communities agree to sustain forward movement

20 Summary Excited by NAME – a world class experiment Opportunity exists for the climate-weather partnership to address this critical warm- season QPF NCEP will support creation of a Hydromet Test Bed

21 Background Slides

22 What Does NCEP Do? ?Severe Storm Outlooks ?Fire Weather Outlooks ?Winter Weather Guidance ?Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts to 5 days ?Weather Forecasts to Day 7 ?Day 8-14 Critical Weather Outlooks ?Marine Weather Discussions ?Model Discussions ?Severe Weather Watches ?Marine High Seas Forecasts ?Hurricane Watches and Warnings ?Aviation Warnings (Convective, Turbulence, Icing) ?Climate Forecasts (Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual) ?Solar Monitoring – geomagnetic storm forecasts Guidance to Support WFO/RFCNational Products ?Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and RRegional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather ?International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts ?Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation ?Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations