Peak Oil – Myth or Menace? Models to help understand peak oil Dr. Robert J. Brecha University of Dayton Chautauqua Course, May 24-26, 2007

US-48 Production

Alaska to the Rescue? US Energy Information Agency:

Many Countries Have Peaked! US UK Indonesia Iran? Venezuela

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

OPEC Proved Crude Oil Reserves Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, January 1, 2005 Estimates

Gaussian

Gaussian Fit to US Production

Peak Models BP USGS

Cumulative Discovery and Production

US Geological Survey Estimates Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)

Rough Outline of the Future USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 USGS published reserve estimates in 1998 EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future growth A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030 A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2030 Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >17 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources

Logistic Curve 1980 Prediction “Economic” argument: We will always find more and increase ultimate recovered amount = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ ) dQ dt

Problem with Logistic Curves At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar. There are too many free fitting parameters

The Point Remains …

Hubbert Linearization Q (Gbbl) P = kQ(1 – Q/Q ∞ )

HL - Texas

HL - World

One Prediction (1998) R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Duncan and Youngquist Predictions Peaked prior to countries Recovered from peak after countries Predicted to peak countries Actually peaked between countries Predicted to peak after countries Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peaked 2 countries

Finding Norways R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”

Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert” 2/3 !

Keep Watching…

Summary Believe “official predictions” Believe “official predictions” Gaussian fitting Gaussian fitting Logistic model Logistic model Cumulative Cumulative Yearly Yearly Linearization Linearization Country-by-country watch Country-by-country watch Monthly data Monthly data