25/04/2017 Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security.

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Presentation transcript:

25/04/2017 Food Security & Political Stability: Disentangling Causes & Consequences Prof dr Ruerd Ruben Impact Assessment for Food Security

Food & Nutrition Insecurity & Civil Conflict

Key dimensions of Food Security Food & Nutrition Security Conflict

Food security risks

Changes in Poverty Strong decline in overall poverty; Poverty in Fragile & non-fragile states (1990-2025) Strong decline in overall poverty; Most structural poverty will become concentrated in Fragile states Share of Rural poverty Chronic poverty remains mainly a rural issue; Urban settings face inequality & undernutrition

Differences in socio-economic performance More structural Poverty & Food Insecurity in (post)conflict countries;associated with many other socio-economic problems.

Underinvestment in African Agriculture Public Investments in Agriculture (10% target) Small public investment in agriculture (R&D and rural infrastructure) Agricultural growth rates (2003-09) Limited growth rates of agricultural output & stagnating productivity

Unstable Food & Agri-commodity Prices Strongly variable food prices with shocks (‘food spikes’) in 2008 & 2011 High food prices: trigger for (urban) food riots , but only rather loose association with Arab Spring events

Foresight modelling & scenarios

Urbanization, Dietary Change & Food Import Food import share (% GDP) in DCs Agricultural trade balance LDCs Dietary changes (1964-2030)

Correlation & Association ≠ Causality Poverty & (local) Conflicts GDP pc / GDP growth & Rule of Law (Rodrik) Poverty Political Governance Food Security

Some (un)confirmed Hypotheses Food scarcity & migration Trigger for domestic (rural to urban) migration Not for international migration (driven by insecurity) Food inequality & corruption & crime (‘greed & grievance’) Food price subsidies  favouring urban middle class Land grabbing & water disputes  civil unrest Food shocks & human relations Natural (disasters)  demand for insurance Man-made (war)  trauma & reduced trust (‘food as weapon’)

Aid & Trade Policies for Socio-political Stability Mitigating conflicts Infrastructure (roads, irrigation) & cultivars (GMOs?) Rainfall insurance (price expectations crops, cattle) Enhancing exchange Post-harvest loss reduction (storage, transport) Regional trade arrangements Promoting interdependence Cooperative development Public-private partnerships & contracts

Thank you for your attention! 25/04/2017 Thank you for your attention!