I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Air Force Weather Agency Director’s Update As briefed at COPC November 2003 Updated 1 Dec 2003 Maj Jim Trigg

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Overview -Inter-center Cooperative Support -NCEP backup ( -NCEP backup (SPC, AWC & SEC back-up) -NAVAF - METSAT update -SPP Update -DMSP operational status -GOES-9 processing -POES Integration into World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis (WWMCA) -METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG) -AFWA Initiatives -Operational DMSP data feed to UK Royal Navy -Space Weather Analysis and Forecasting (SWAFS) update -Mesoscale modeling: MM5 windows & improvements -WRF transition 2

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Inter-center Cooperative Support 3

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 NCEP Backup -Storm Prediction Center -Backup on 27 Jan (fire alarm) & 11 Feb (comm outage) -Installed new workstations/applications interface on 28 Aug -Close collaboration continues -Aviation Weather Center -Backup on 31 Jul (software problems at AWC) -Completed upgrade to AFWA’s N-AWIPS Server on 12 Mar -Space Environmental Center -Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified; warning S/W exchange in progress -Refining phased approach to backup -Congressional testimony provided 30 Oct MM5 Backup for Eta Model -Four cycles daily, 45 km windows for North America and Alaska -Successful backup tests 25 Jul and 24 Oct 4

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 NCEP Backup Cont. - Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center -Full W-VAAC backup operational at AFWA on 17 Jun 02 -Formal MOA in final stages of coordination -4 backups in FY03 (25 Jan, 26 Mar, 3 Aug, 27 Aug) “Washington VAAC would like to salute the responsive and collaborative effort the METSAT Applications Branch provided during these events.” - Grace Swanson - Grace Swanson Manager, W-VAAC Manager, W-VAAC 5

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 NAVAF - METSAT -Delivery Performance % of DMSP SIMPLE files delivered to FNMOC -Timeliness Performance % of files delivered within 5 minute timeline Threshold - AFWA-to-FNMOC file transfers have slowed significantly since beginning of Sept - Working closely together to identify cause and fix action 6

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 SPP Update 7

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 DMSP Operational Status (28 Nov 03) OPR: NPOESS IPO/ADO FOUO/UCI FOUO/UCI 8

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 GOES-9 Processing GOES-9 Transition Complete  FOC 20 May 03  Replaced Japanese GMS-5  28 full disks, 16 sectors/day ~10X increase in data volume over GMS-5  May 03: Initiated FTW & simple file delivery to FNMOC  8 Oct 03: Image Motion Compensation (IMC) switched off at request of Japanese. Fix to IMC off navigation errors implemented on all AFWA systems by 30 Oct 9

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 POES Integration into WWMCA World-Wide Merged Cloud Analysis Global, hourly cloud analysis. Provides input to National Intelligence Community, cloud forecast model, and global soil temperature and moisture analysis. Ingesting N-15, 16, 17 POES Implementation 1 Oct 03 POES weighting factor will be adjusted as confidence in analysis increases Tuning Global average pixel age reduced at least 10 minutes Benefit 10

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/ Oct Z (Before POES) Average global pixel age: minutes 2 Oct Z (After POES) Average global pixel age: minutes NH SH 11

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 METEOSAT Second Generation (MSG)  AFWA to receive DOMSAT relay of MSG from Wallops Will cost-share DOMSAT uplink expense with NASA  Awaiting EUMETSAT decision on NESDIS request for T1 data relay and sufficiency of proposed encryption scheme Decision drives AFWA decryption/ingest architecture  Pressing forward with software work required to: Use MSG channels to create a GOES-like capability Exploit MSG capabilities for new applications  Awaiting Navy decision on preference for MSG delivery SPP vs. DOMSAT AFWA plans to switch from MET-7 to MSG Apr

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 MSG Benefits  Fifteen minute imaging cycle vs. current 30 min More timely data for event detection/nowcasting  Twelve spectral channels vs. 3 on current MET series More precise characterization of atmosphere  Increase horizontal resolution to 1km vs. current 2.5 km Improved convective event detection capability  Improved platform reliability Nominal on-orbit lifespan of 7 years vs. 5 years

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 AFWA Initiatives 14

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 UK Royal Navy Support  AFWA and UK Royal Navy‘s Fleet Weather and Oceanography Centre (FWOC) agree to exchange weather data USAF/XOW approved DMSP data release 29 May 01 Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) signed 23 Apr 03 AFWA began sending FWOC all stored DMSP data in near real-time for worldwide fleet support Apr 03 Coordination underway for FWOC data feed to AFWA 15

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 SWAFS Spiral month effort transferred space weather mission from 55 th SWXS to HQ AFWA -Mainstreams space weather -Leverages AFWA production/dissemination system -Added Secret production capability -Products now available in Unclassified, Secret, and SCI environments HF Illumination Auroral Boundary UHF Scintillation Particle Data Space Weather Analysis & Forecast System (SWAFS) 16

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Objectives for Spirals 2 & 3 New & improved capabilities using new data types and enhanced science-based algorithms/models (FY ) -- Improve Ionospheric Analysis & Forecast Products -- Improve Ionospheric Analysis & Forecast Products -- Improve Auroral Specification Capabilities -- Improve Auroral Specification Capabilities -- Support establishment of baseline AFWA-SEC backup capability -- Support establishment of baseline AFWA-SEC backup capability -- Enhance product tailoring capability -- Enhance product tailoring capability -- Increased classified processing -- Increased classified processing -- Establish satellite analysis capability for anomaly assessment -- Establish satellite analysis capability for anomaly assessment -- Model magnetosphere with real-time data assimilation -- Model magnetosphere with real-time data assimilation -- Expand into solar wind forecasting -- Expand into solar wind forecasting -- Automate verification and model/product statistics -- Automate verification and model/product statistics 17

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Space Weather Models Update Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ModelGlobal Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model Operational capability FY06Operational capability FY06 Replaces current climatology-based forecasting with state-of-the- art data assimilation system and physics-based forecasting capabilityReplaces current climatology-based forecasting with state-of-the- art data assimilation system and physics-based forecasting capability New space weather sensors on DMSP Block 5D-3 should improve our capabilitiesNew space weather sensors on DMSP Block 5D-3 should improve our capabilities 18

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Mesoscale Modeling Driven by MAJCOM requirements Driven by MAJCOM requirements 17 Windows; 45 km; 72 hrs 17 Windows; 45 km; 72 hrs 11 Windows; 15 km; 6-48 hrs 11 Windows; 15 km; 6-48 hrs 2 Windows; 5 km; 6-24 hrs 2 Windows; 5 km; 6-24 hrs MM5 Operational Coverage 19

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Mesoscale Modeling Coupled Land Surface Model Implemented Spring 03Coupled Land Surface Model Implemented Spring 03 Allows for atmospheric impact of changing soil temp/moistureAllows for atmospheric impact of changing soil temp/moisture Assimilation of new data typesAssimilation of new data types QuickScat, Feature Track Winds, ACARSQuickScat, Feature Track Winds, ACARS Polar Physics Enhancements ImplementedPolar Physics Enhancements Implemented Better handling of strong inversions over snow coverBetter handling of strong inversions over snow cover Theater-specific physics packagesTheater-specific physics packages 17 different tailored configurations presently in use17 different tailored configurations presently in use 3DVAR Enhancements Theater-specific background error statistics provide more accurate initial conditions 20

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Mesoscale Modeling Cont. -Major FY03 IBM procurement resulted in 300% increase in available CPU cycles -- Classified modeling capability is nearing IOC!! -AFWA-FNMOC submitted joint proposal to DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Office to establish Joint WRF Operational Testbed -Will install ~600 Gflops of processing capacity at each site -Project will demonstrate/prove viability of grid-computing technologies, validate WRF performance against DoD requirements, and support DoD-unique algorithm testing -Outlook is promising; expect final decision on funding within weeks 21

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e As of: 12/17/2015 Summary -Many successes during past year -Operationally backed up SPC, AWC and W-VAAC -Continuing overall excellent NAVAF METSAT performance -GOES-9 data replaced GMS-5, inserted POES in WWMCA -Working backup/cooperative support relationships with the NOAA SEC -Historic collaboration with Navy during Iraqi ground campaign -Strong collaboration continuing with NWS, Navy and research community on WRF -Busy Year...but we made a lot happen, thanks to great partnerships! 22