DARGAN M. W. FRIERSON DEPARTMENT OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES DAY 3: 10/13/2015 ATM S 111, Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast

Next: Who’s Responsible? How much are average emissions for:  Citizen of the world  Average American  Nations of the world Which sectors do emissions come from?  Transportation  Electricity generation  Industry “Carbon efficiency”

Carbon Dioxide vs Other Pollutants Most pollution is felt near the source  Air quality near urban centers or coal power plants  Water quality near mining, etc CO 2 is not like this!  Since CO 2 stays in the atmosphere for so long, everyone’s emissions affect everyone else  Truly a global problem So it makes sense to think about who’s responsible

How Much Carbon Dioxide Is There? Total amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: 3100 gigatonnes World emissions: over 34 gigatonnes per year  1 gigatonne = 1 billion metric tons  And one metric ton is a little more than a regular ton (2000 pounds)  4.8 tonnes per person per year! Note sometimes stats are given in tonnes of carbon instead…  CO 2 is heavier than C by a factor of 3.67 (b/c of the oxygen)

Gigatonnes… Confession: I hate dealing with really big numbers like this  I think they’re hard to put into our everyday experience  Say a company advertises they cut emissions by 500 pounds of CO2 per day: is this a lot or a little?? It’s important to know the numbers too, but let’s first talk about an easier way to visualize emissions

The “Carbon Blanket” What if all the CO2 in the atmosphere sank to the surface of the Earth and was in one layer of gas  Forming a carbon blanket all over the globe It would be 3.2 meters (10.5 feet) thick  Preindustrial (1750) thickness was 2.3 m (7.5 feet)  1990 thickness was 2.9 m (9.5 feet)

Adding to the Carbon Blanket Each year we emit the equivalent of 3.7 cm (1.5 inches) to the blanket  A little over a foot per decade…

What Happens to CO 2 Emissions? Not all of those emissions go into the atmosphere though  A little less than 50% does actually… 25% goes into the ocean  Unfortunately this leads to ocean acidification (a future topic) 30% goes into land ecosystems So around 6 inches per decade is added into the blanket…

Pieces of the Blanket: China We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting… China: 25% 8.5 gigatonnes per year Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: USA We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting… USA: 16% 5.4 gigatonnes per year Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: Canada We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting… Canada: 1.5% 0.5 gigatonnes per year Source of images: carbonquilt.org

Pieces of the Blanket: Bangladesh We can divide up the quilt into sections based on who’s doing the emitting… Bangladesh: 0.2% 65 million tonnes per year Source of images: carbonquilt.org

National Emissions Another way to look at national carbon dioxide emissions  Area of each country is made proportional to its emissions Source of images: WorldMapper

Our Individual Share: USA Per capita matters  Some of these countries are so large because they have large populations USA per capita emissions: 17.3 tonnes per year 100 pounds per day

Individual Share: World Average Per capita matters  Some of these countries are so large because they have large populations World per capita emissions: 4.8 tonnes per year 30 pounds per day

Emissions Numbers World average per capita emissions is 4.8 tonnes  World population: 7 billion  total emissions are 34 billion tonnes (34 gigatonnes)

Countries by CO2 Emissions China: 25% US: 16% European Union: 10% India: 6% Russia: 5% Japan: 3% All other countries less than 2% each

Countries by Per Capita CO2 Emissions World average is 4.8 tonnes per year Highest are oil producing states (e.g., Qatar, Kuwait) US is rather high (12 th ): 3.3 times world average (17.3 tonnes per person per year)  Australia, Canada have similar emissions as US per capita Russia, Korea, Many EU countries, Japan: 8-13 tonnes/yr France, Spain, China: 5-7 tonnes/yr India: 1.7 tonnes/yr numbers

Exporting CO2 Emissions Bought anything made in China lately?? Who should pay the cost of carbon emissions from goods made in one country but exported to other countries? Related concept is “carbon leakage”: when production of goods moves to a location with less strict regulation of emissions

The Developing World 2.2 billion people live on less than $2/day 1.3 billion live without access to electricity

Future of Emissions for Developing Nations The developing world will soon surpass developed countries in CO 2 emissions Advanced Developing OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development includes 30 countries, mostly industrialized Developing nations will be a massive energy market in the future… What fuels will they use? (this plot assumes no additional regulations)

What Makes Up the Emissions? oil 90% fossil fuel burning, 10% deforestation Coal and oil makes up 80% of worldwide fossil fuel emissions Oil for transportation, coal for electricity

What Makes Up the Emissions? Industry: 29%  Getting more efficient & dropping in importance  More and more shifting to developing countries like China, India  Another equity concern: “carbon leakage” Electricity and heat generation: 18% Deforestation/soils: 15% Transportation: 15%  Rising rapidly Other fuel-related emissions: 13%  Coal, oil, and gas production Agriculture: 7% From textbook & World Resource Institute (all greenhouse gases)

US Emissions Sources Electricity: 42% Transportation: 32% Industry: 15% Residential: 6% Commercial: 4% 2008 data, EPA

US Emissions Sources If you distribute electricity use into the other sectors: Transportation: 32% Industry: 27% Residential: 21% Commercial: 19% 2008 data, EPA

How About in Seattle? Recent study by Brookings Institution says Seattle is 6 th best in the country (5.7 tons CO 2 each per year)  Hydroelectric power means small electricity emissions  Relatively mild climate means small home heating  Surprisingly, Los Angeles was #2 in this study Study did not include industrial emissions, or airplane travel (which constitutes most of my personal footprint)  Also only CO 2, no methane, etc  No emissions associated with where we get food & goods either We’ll discuss Seattle more in future weeks…

Summary Big problem spanning lots of different sectors  Can’t blame just one type of energy use Trends in energy use  Industry is getting more efficient  Residential is getting worse  Partially due to significantly larger home sizes  Transportation is getting worse  More cars on the roads, longer driving distances