NWP Activities at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM 27th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings Ljubljana, October 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

NWP Activities at INM José A. García-Moya SMNT – INM 27th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings Ljubljana, October 2005

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings2 Introduction Operational activities. Computer resources Hirlam as operational model. Wave model. Verification. Research in NWP: Hirlam project. Data Assimilation Coupling dynamic-physic in Hirlam Physical parameterizations SREPS

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings3 Computer resources Cray X1e 15 nodes, 8 MSP’s each node 4 SSP’s each MSP 320 Gb memory 2.3 TF peak performance Official acceptance: June 2005

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings4 Cray X1e MSP

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings5 Hirlam operational model ONR 0.16 deg latxlon, 40 levels 72 hours forecast, 4 times a day 3DVAR BC’s from ECMWF HNR and CNN 0.05 deg latxlon, 40 levels 36 hours forecast, 4 times a day 3DVAR BC’s from ONR

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings6 ONR integration area

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings7 HNR – CNN integration areas

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings8 Verification 2005 Standard verification against observations. Verification against Spanish High Resolution precipitation network. Monthly comparison ONR-HNR models for Spain.

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings9 Geopotential June-August 2005

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings10 MSLP June-August

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings11 Precip. by thresholds POD-FAR

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings12 Wave operational model WAM 4 for Atlantic and Mediterranean High resolution shallow water model

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings13 Wave operational model

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings14 High Resolution Wave operational model

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings15 Hirlam Project – Data Assimilation 3DVAR in operational models. Assimilation of GPS data (TOUGH project). Test of Hirlam 4DVAR in the Cray X1e. Soil moisture analysis comparison between Hirlam reference system and 1DVAR version (ELDAS project). Mesoscale Rapid Update Cycle of analysis of surface parameters. Assimilation of VAD winds from INM radar network.

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings16 Spring period: 15 April-15 May 2004 Impact of introducing 31 new GPS sites ETS and TSS show that increasing the number of GPS sites improves model precipitation. Verification with INM Climate stations (upscaled to 22km). PP thresholds (0.1, 0.3, 1., 3., 10., 30., 100. mm in 24 hours)

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings17 Hirlam Project – Dynamics Different strategies of coupling dynamics-physic in Hirlam. Stability and same meteorological quality with larger time step.

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings18 Hirlam Project – Physics Surface processes: Snow OI analysis. ECOCLIMAP database in Hirlam. New formulation of snow processes using two additional tiles: snow over open land Snow over forest

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings19 Hirlam Project – Physics Convection: New moist scheme based on Kain-Fritsch convection and Rasch-Kristjannsson large scale implemented into the HIRLAM reference system. Forecast % more expensive and even more on vector computers (vector optimization in progress). Improvement of precipitation over Iberia.

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings20 True Skill Statistic + Equitable Threat Score over Iberia (2-3 months)

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings21 SREPS - Multi-model Multi-boundaries Models: Hirlam. HRM MM5 UM Boundaries ECMWF UM AVN GME

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings22 Ensemble 72 hours forecast four times a day (00, 06, 12 y 18 UTC). Characteristics: 4 models. 4 boundary conditions. 4 last ensembles (HH, HH-6, HH-12, HH-18). 16 member ensemble every 6 hours Time-lagged Super-Ensemble of 64 members every 6 hours.

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings23 SREPS BCs / Model AVNECMWFGMEUM HirlamXXXX HrmXXXX MM5XXXX UMOOOX

October th EWGLAM & 12th SRNWP Meetings24 Road Map Research to find best ensemble for the Short Range Jun 04 – Jun 05 Building Multimodel System Jun 05- Dec 05 Mummub n/16 members Daily run non- operational Mar 06Mummub 16/16 members Full operations Jun 06Mummub+4lag 64 members First try