Justin Glisan Iowa State University Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences RACM Project Update: ISU Atmospheric Modeling Component: Part 1 5th DOE/RACM Meeting: Santa Cruz, CA 1Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

Outline Update since San Diego Extended SHEBA Year run – Full and embedded domains – Time series/Plots Production runs – Experimental Design – Replication (spatial and temporal) – Ensembles Future Work/PhD Research 2Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

Update since San Diego Production WRF runs by WRF 3.1 – Incorporates various parameterizations designed for the Arctic (Mark Seefeldt’s SD presentation) – Extended SHEBA year run (five years) Full domain analysis Sub-domain analysis for large watersheds and central Arctic Ocean Elements of experimental design dealing with statistical significance and replication

Pan-Arctic WRF Setup Using physics parameterizations tested at the University of Colorado 4Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

PAW WRF (ARW dynamic core) version 3.1 Pan-Arctic Domain Colorado Physics Parameterizations Forcing data sets: – NCEP/DOE R2 – NSIDC Bootstrap Fractional Sea Ice Justin Glisan, Iowa State University5

6

PAW Model Runs Extended SHEBA Run th DOE/RACM Meeting: San Diego, CA 7Justin Glisan, Iowa State University

Present Day Climatology In an effort to study the past 30 years, three distinct five-year periods selected Literature and statistical review shows an ensemble containing from four to six members reasonable – Seven year spin-up (two years for soil, etc.) – Final five years used – Members created 24 hours apart Experimental design…

Extended SHEBA Year Test Case September 1997 – September 2001 (+) – Initial run extended into February 1999 – Will have ensembles Results compared against: – NCEP/DOE R2 – ECMWF ERA40 – SHEBA Observations* 4th DOE/RACM Meeting: San Diego, CA Justin Glisan, Iowa State University9