1 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2009 Update Transition from Research to Operations Jiann-Gwo Jiing Chief, Technical Support Branch, NHC JHT Director Chris.

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1 Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) 2009 Update Transition from Research to Operations Jiann-Gwo Jiing Chief, Technical Support Branch, NHC JHT Director Chris Landsea NHC Chris Landsea NHC Shirley Murillo NOAA/HRD Shirley Murillo NOAA/HRD 63 rd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference St. Petersburg, FL March 5, 2009

2 OutlineOutline Summary of JHT projects Summary of JHT projects Major activities at JHT & NHC Major activities at JHT & NHC Challenges ahead Challenges ahead Summary of JHT projects Summary of JHT projects Major activities at JHT & NHC Major activities at JHT & NHC Challenges ahead Challenges ahead

3 Summary of JHT projects ) Number of projects supported: 50 1) Number of projects supported: 50 – 41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation – Number of projects rejected: 5 – Number of projects completed but pending further investigation (decisions deferred): 5 – Number of projects in process: 9 2) Implementation 2) Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 26.5 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 3.5 Note: 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. 1) Number of projects supported: 50 1) Number of projects supported: 50 – 41 completed, 30 accepted for operational implementation – Number of projects rejected: 5 – Number of projects completed but pending further investigation (decisions deferred): 5 – Number of projects in process: 9 2) Implementation 2) Implementation – Number of projects implemented: 26.5 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of numerical modeling related projects implemented by EMC/NCO: 10 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 Number of projects implemented by NHC: 16.5 – Number of projects accepted but not yet fully implemented by NHC: 3.5 Note: 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. 1) Implementation is defined when a project is completed, accepted, and the technique installed on NCEP/NCO or NHC operational systems and runs on operational time frame. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing. Some techniques were “implemented” on JHT platform for testing.

present Major Activities Completion of 15 third round ( ) projects Completion of 15 third round ( ) projects – Completed in August 2007 – Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) September-December 2007 September-December 2007 – Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Directors) Decisions made January 2008 Decisions made January 2008 – 4 criteria for acceptance – 12 projects accepted – 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation – Implementaton 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC Completion of 15 third round ( ) projects Completion of 15 third round ( ) projects – Completed in August 2007 – Final evaluation (NHC/EMC POCs & JHT) September-December 2007 September-December 2007 – Decision on acceptance for implementation (NHC and EMC Directors) Decisions made January 2008 Decisions made January 2008 – 4 criteria for acceptance – 12 projects accepted – 3 projects deferred pending further evaluation – Implementaton 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC 11 implemented: 4 by EMC/NCO & 7 by NHC

present Major Activities Factors Considered in Decisions on Acceptance/Operational Implementation Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Factors Considered in Decisions on Acceptance/Operational Implementation Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needs Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc. Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide support Cont.

present Major Activities Implementation (NHC) Implementation (NHC) Some relative easy Some relative easy Some very complicated Some very complicated NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation JHT IT facilitator assists in the process JHT IT facilitator assists in the process NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed Implementation (NHC) Implementation (NHC) Some relative easy Some relative easy Some very complicated Some very complicated NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation NHC contributes ≥ 0.5 FTE/yr on implementation JHT IT facilitator assists in the process JHT IT facilitator assists in the process NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed NCEP/EMC and NCO also contributed Operational Centers are not funded for this task Cont.

7 Highlights of 3 rd Round Implemented Projects Topographic Wind Effects - Miller HWRF – Tuleya, Powell VORTRAC – Lee/Bell/Harasti GFDL – Bender OLD GFDL (2) NEW GFDL (4) OLD GFS (1) NEW GFS (3)

8 Highlights of 3 rd Round Implemented Projects Corrected Consensus Track Forecasts - Goerss Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan Inclusion of Dropsonde Moisture into GFS – Aberson/Dunion Revised SHIPS intensity forecast scheme – DeMaria/Knaff

9 Highlights of 3 rd Round Implemented Projects Wind Radii Decay Model - Kaplan Improvements to ATCF operating system - Sampson Enhancements to Wind Probability Products – Knaff/DeMaria SFMR - Carswell/Black

present Major Activities Second year funding renewal for 4 th round projects – April - June 2008 Second year funding renewal for 4 th round projects – April - June 2008 Testing of 4 th round projects Testing of 4 th round projects – Collaboration with PI – Programming – Establishing data flow – Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation Second year funding renewal for 4 th round projects – April - June 2008 Second year funding renewal for 4 th round projects – April - June 2008 Testing of 4 th round projects Testing of 4 th round projects – Collaboration with PI – Programming – Establishing data flow – Generating output for forecaster use/evaluation Cont.

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12 B2: Model development/improvements B3: Physical processes in models on track, intensity and structure, and precipitation B6: Advanced, probabilistic guidance; optimal ensemble construction and configuration; C1: Observing strategies/capabilities C2: Observations to support model diagnostics and verification C3: New and/or improved observational technologies

present Major Activities Preparation for 5 th round projects Preparation for 5 th round projects 1.Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08) Centers priorities Centers priorities Evaluation criteria Evaluation criteria – FFO published early July – SC Review of Pre-applications (September) – PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30) – SC Review of full proposals (completed) Preparation for 5 th round projects Preparation for 5 th round projects 1.Draft Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) (March 08) Centers priorities Centers priorities Evaluation criteria Evaluation criteria – FFO published early July – SC Review of Pre-applications (September) – PIs submitting full proposals (Oct 30) – SC Review of full proposals (completed) Cont.

14 Challenges for 2009 Fifth round funding processes Fifth round funding processes – Rank and select proposals for funding (completed) – Work with Grants Office to fund selected projects – Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff – Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projects Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) – Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5 th round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow. Completion of 4 th round projects Completion of 4 th round projects – Final reports for 4 th round projects – POC feedback – JHT final review/reports to NHC Director Implement newly accepted projects (TPC) Implement newly accepted projects (TPC) Fifth round funding processes Fifth round funding processes – Rank and select proposals for funding (completed) – Work with Grants Office to fund selected projects – Find Point of contacts among NHC forecasters and support staff – Work with PIs to setup timelines for their projects Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) Test and evaluation (with NHC & EMC) – Prepare real-time testing & evaluation for 5 th round projects – Set up necessary software code and data flow. Completion of 4 th round projects Completion of 4 th round projects – Final reports for 4 th round projects – POC feedback – JHT final review/reports to NHC Director Implement newly accepted projects (TPC) Implement newly accepted projects (TPC)

15 AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst. Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst. Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff JHT principal investigators and other funded participantsJHT principal investigators and other funded participants John Gaynor (USWRP)John Gaynor (USWRP) NHC admin staffNHC admin staff JHT Steering CommitteeJHT Steering Committee Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst.Shirley Murillo, JHT Admin. Asst. Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst.Chris Landsea, JHT Admin. Asst. Jose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmerJose Salazar, JHT meteorologist/programmer NHC and EMC forecaster and points of contactNHC and EMC forecaster and points of contact NHC/Technical Support Branch staffNHC/Technical Support Branch staff JHT principal investigators and other funded participantsJHT principal investigators and other funded participants John Gaynor (USWRP)John Gaynor (USWRP) NHC admin staffNHC admin staff

16 JHT Website Go to

17 Thank you

18 Supplemental Slides

19 4th Round (FY07-08) Recommended Funding Distribution Total $1.04M ($1.5M announced) Private Companies 24% NOAA 20% State and Private Universities 33% Navy (NPS, NRL) 11% NASA 12% (0%) (16%) (36%) (9%) (39%)

20 Logistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Dedicated physical space in operations, officesPersonnel NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people – 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant – NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Network connectivity Operational data flow Operational data flowLogistics Dedicated physical space in operations, offices Dedicated physical space in operations, officesPersonnel NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people NHC dedicating about 1.5 FTE spread across ~12 people – 0.5 FTE reimbursed by USWRP for quarter-time JHT Director and one quarter-time JHT administrative assistant – NHC contributing 1.0 FTE, including NHC member on JHT Steering Committee, forecasters, and technical support staff Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Forecaster and technical points of contact (POC) Programming, system administration, and network support Programming, system administration, and network support Administrative support Administrative support Computing Resources Network connectivity Network connectivity Operational data flow Operational data flow NHC Contributions to JHT

21 JHT Infrastructure Personnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee 7-member Steering Committee – Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community – TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) Computing Resources Server and workstations Server and workstations Software SoftwarePersonnel Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) Quarter-time Director (NOAA FTE) 7-member Steering Committee 7-member Steering Committee – Three from NOAA (one TPC), two from DOD, and two from the academic community – TPC member serves as co-Chair Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) Two quarter-time administrative assistants (NOAA FTE) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) One IT Facilitator (meteorologist/programmer) Computing Resources Server and workstations Server and workstations Software Software

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23 Primary Area of Focus # of Projects Improvements to dynamical models (for track, intensity, and precipitation forecasts) 5 Statistical intensity forecast guidance 1 Enhancements to observed data, assimilation 0 Tropical cyclone structure/wind/wave distribution 2 Track forecast guidance 1 Enhancements to operational environment 1 Total present Major Activities 4th Round Project Focus Areas Cont.

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